Author: Matt Crosby, Bitcoin Magazine; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance.

As Bitcoin prices reaching six figures has become the norm, and higher prices seem inevitable, analyzing key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the potential health of the market. By understanding these Indicators, better predictions of price trends can be made, preparing for potential market peaks or any upcoming pullbacks.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price Indicator combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while considering Bitcoin's supply, and has historically been a reliable Indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the speed of token transfers while accounting for holding time and the amount of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: The terminal price of Bitcoin has exceeded $185,000.

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and may rise to $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking through $100,000, this suggests that there may still be several months of positive price movement ahead.

PUELL Multiple

The Puell multiple evaluates miners' daily income (in USD) relative to their 365-day moving average. Following the halving event, miners' income sharply declined, leading to a consolidation phase.

Figure 2: The Puell multiple has risen above 1.00.

Currently, the Puell multiple has risen above 1, indicating that miners will regain profitability. Historically, exceeding this threshold signifies that a bull market cycle has entered its later stages, typically marked by exponential price increases. Similar patterns have been observed in all previous bull markets.

MVRV Z Score

The MVRV Z Score measures market value relative to the actual value (the Average Cost base of Bitcoin holders). Standardized to a Z score to account for the volatility of Assets, it is very accurate in identifying cyclical peaks and troughs.

Figure 3: The MVRV-Z score remains far below previous peaks.

Currently, the MVRV Z value of Bitcoin is still below the overheated red zone, around 3.00, indicating that there is still room for growth. Although the decline in peak value is a trend in recent cycles, the Z value suggests that the market is far from reaching an exhilarating peak.

Active address sentiment.

This indicator tracks the 28-day percentage change of active network addresses and the price change during the same period. When price increases outpace network activity, it suggests that the market may be overbought in the short term, as considering network utilization, a positive price trend may not be sustainable.

Figure 4: AASI indicates that the situation above 100,000 dollars is overheated.

Recent data shows that after Bitcoin rapidly climbed from 50,000 dollars to 100,000 dollars, the market has slightly cooled down, indicating that the market is in a healthy consolidation phase. This pause may lay the groundwork for long-term sustained growth and does not mean that a pessimistic view should be taken for the medium to long term.

Spent Output Profit Ratio.

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures the realized profit of Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an increase in profit-taking, which may indicate that we are entering the late stage of the cycle.

Figure 5: SOPR large-scale profit-taking cluster.

One issue to consider is the increasing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives. Investors may shift from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax benefits, which may affect the value of SOPR.

Value destruction days.

The Value Destruction Days (VDD) multiple expands the CDD by weighting larger long-term holders. When this indicator enters the overheated red zone, it usually signals a significant peak in price, as the largest and most experienced participants in the market begin to cash out.

Figure 6: VDD is a bit hot, but not too hot.

While the current VDD level of Bitcoin suggests the market is slightly overheated, history indicates that Bitcoin may maintain this Range for several months before peaking. For example, in 2017, the VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle reached its peak.

Summary

Overall, these Indicators suggest that Bitcoin is entering the later stage of a bull market. While some Indicators indicate a cooling off or slight overextension in the short term, most Indicators suggest that there is still considerable upside potential throughout 2025. The key resistance level for this cycle may appear between $150,000 and $200,000, and as we approach the peak, Indicators such as SOPR and VDD will provide clearer signals.