联合国粮农组织经济学家Monika Tothova表示：“存在很多不确定性，未来的政策方向就是其中之一。”她表示，天气风险、地缘政治和宏观经济政策也将成为影响2025年大宗商品价格的关键因素。The rebound in Global food prices may raise Consumer grocery spending costs this year.
According to Zhituo Finance APP, as the Agriculture sector prepares to cope with potential trade disruptions, the rebound in Global food prices may increase Consumer grocery spending costs this year. A United Nations index tracking food raw material costs rose nearly 7% in 2024, marking the first annual increase in three years. While it will take time to transmit to supermarkets, and the Index remains significantly lower than the peak in 2022, it could impose new pressure on shoppers who have been affected by broader inflationary pressures in recent years.
Despite food supply and prices often being affected by unpredictable weather, uncertainty may be greater this year with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump proposed imposing tariffs on all Commodities imported into the USA, and a key question is how the trade war will affect the flow and prices of Global food Commodities.
Monika Tothova, an economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, stated, "There are many uncertainties, and future policy directions are one of them." She noted that weather risks, geopolitical issues, and macroeconomic policies will also be key factors influencing CSI Commodity Equity Index prices in 2025.
Global food prices have risen for the first time since 2021.
Although the Food Price Index from the Food and Agriculture Organization showed a slight decline in December compared to the previous month, it remains close to its highest level since April 2023. The rise in 2024 is primarily driven by increases in vegetable oil prices, as well as Dairy Product and meat prices. Grain costs have decreased due to ample supply.
Tothova stated that the recent trends in vegetable oils and grains may continue into this year. Meanwhile, prices for meat and Dairy Product may decline unless there are severe animal diseases.
Rabobank stated last month that it expects the palm oil shortage to continue until 2025, thus driving up prices. The bank also anticipates shortages in Chicago SRW Wheat, while Corn and Soybean supplies remain abundant.
At present, the market is still waiting for the clarification of the USA's trade strategy after Trump's inauguration later this month.
Analysts Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort of Rabobank stated in last month's report: "The policies of the new USA government and the reactions from other regions will determine the outlook for 2025."
