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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings Limited's (HKG:936) Shares After Tumbling 26%

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 5 09:10

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings Limited (HKG:936) shares are down a considerable 26% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 46% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.9x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' earnings have been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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SEHK:936 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry January 5th 2025
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Likewise, not much has changed from three years ago as earnings have been stuck during that whole time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has definitely eluded the company recently.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' P/E?

Even after such a strong price drop, Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Kaisa Capital Investment Holdings (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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