Lontrue Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300175) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 11% in that time.
Although its price has dipped substantially, given around half the companies in China's Food industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.7x, you may still consider Lontrue as a stock to avoid entirely with its 10.2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
How Lontrue Has Been Performing
Lontrue has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Lontrue, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Lontrue's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 13% last year. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 4.8% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 15% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Lontrue is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Lontrue's P/S?
A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Lontrue's very lofty P/S. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Lontrue revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Lontrue you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.