Here's How Trump Could Wipe Out 40% of Tesla's Profits After Taking Office, According To JPMorgan Analyst
Here's How Trump Could Wipe Out 40% of Tesla's Profits After Taking Office, According To JPMorgan Analyst
For the first time, Tesla reported a drop in annual vehicle sales, with approximately 1.79 million cars sold in 2024, a slight decrease from the record 1.8 million sales in 2023. The profitability of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be severely impacted under the second Trump administration, with a potential 40% decrease.
特斯拉公司（NASDAQ:TSLA）的盈利能力在特朗普第二任期下可能会受到严重影响，预计会下降40%。
What Happened: After a less than stellar Q4 sales performance and a 6% decrease in Tesla's shares, JPMorgan analysts foresee more hurdles in the company's path.
发生了什么：在第四季度销售表现不佳和特斯拉股价下降6%之后，摩根大通的分析师们预见到公司面临更多的挑战。
The bank's predictions are based on President elect Donald Trump's plans to do away with EV tax credits and subsidies, which have made Tesla's vehicles more affordable to consumers.
该银行的预测基于当选总统特朗普计划取消电动车税收抵免和补贴，这些政策使得特斯拉的汽车对消费者更为实惠。
For the first time, Tesla reported a drop in annual vehicle sales, with approximately 1.79 million cars sold in 2024, a slight decrease from the record 1.8 million sales in 2023.
特斯拉首次报告年汽车销量下降，2024年大约售出179万台汽车，较2023年的创纪录的180万辆略有下降。
This comes in the wake of a broader slowdown in the EV market as consumer preferences shift towards more economical hybrids.
这发生在电动车市场整体放缓的背景下，因为消费者的偏好正在转向更经济的混合动力汽车。
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman expressed doubt about Tesla's future prospects, stating that the company does not seem poised to dominate the global auto industry during the transition to electrification.
摩根大通分析师瑞安·布林克曼对特斯拉的未来前景表示怀疑，称该公司在向电气化过渡期间似乎并不具备主导全球汽车行业的能力。
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"Tesla does not appear to us on track to dominate the global auto industry amidst the electrification transition, which we view as only the starting point for present valuation," Brinkman wrote in a note on Friday and as quoted by Insider.
布林克曼在周五的一份报告中写道，"特斯拉在电气化过渡期间似乎并未在主导全球汽车行业的轨道上，我们认为这只是当前估值的起点。"
Brinkman also contradicted Elon Musk's assertion that the removal of EV subsidies would be beneficial for Tesla. He projected that Tesla could lose around $3.2 billion due to regulatory changes under Trump, as government subsidies constitute a significant part of Tesla's revenue.
布林克曼还反驳了埃隆·马斯克关于取消电动车补贴将对特斯拉有利的说法。他预测，由于特朗普政府的监管变更，特斯拉可能会损失约32亿美元，因为政府补贴是特斯拉营业收入的重要部分。
"The slowing of deliveries, even ahead of a likely subsidy removal, we think has the potential to refocus investors on the deterioration in deliveries, revenue, gross profit, EBIT, EPS, and FCF estimates across all periods," Brinkman added in the note.
"即使在可能取消补贴之前，交付放缓也可能使投资者再次关注交付、营业收入、毛利润、EBIT、每股收益和自由现金流预测的恶化，"布林克曼在报告中补充道。
Despite these obstacles, Tesla shares experienced a slight recovery on Friday morning, rising by about 4%.
尽管面临这些障碍，特斯拉的股价在周五早晨略有回升，上涨约4%。
Why It Matters: The potential elimination of EV tax credits and subsidies under the Trump administration could have a significant impact on Tesla's profitability.
这很重要：特朗普政府可能取消电动车税收抵免和补贴可能对特斯拉的盈利能力产生重大影响。
These incentives have played a crucial role in making Tesla's vehicles more affordable, thereby driving sales. The shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable hybrids could further exacerbate Tesla's challenges.
这些激励措施在使特斯拉的汽车更具价格竞争力方面发挥了关键作用，从而推动了销售。消费者对更实惠的混合动力车的偏好转变可能会进一步加剧特斯拉的挑战。
The company's ability to navigate these changes and maintain its market position will be crucial in the coming years.
公司在应对这些变化并保持市场地位的能力将在未来几年至关重要。
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