With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 10x in Hong Kong, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China Mobile Limited's (HKG:941) P/E ratio of 11.2x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Recent times have been advantageous for China Mobile as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Keen to find out how analysts think China Mobile's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.How Is China Mobile's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like China Mobile's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.3%. The latest three year period has also seen a 15% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.2% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it interesting that China Mobile is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What We Can Learn From China Mobile's P/E?
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that China Mobile currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for China Mobile with six simple checks.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than China Mobile. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.