CICC released a research report stating that it maintains INNOVENT BIO (01801) at an "outperform Industry" rating, basically maintaining the 2024 revenue and net income forecasts. Considering the upfront payment income from this authorization, the 2025 revenue forecast is raised by 5.4% to 10.986 billion yuan, while the 2025 net income forecast remains unchanged at 0.495 billion yuan. Introducing the 2026 revenue forecast at 13.001 billion yuan, and the net income forecast at 1.278 billion yuan. Target Price is set at 58 HKD.

On January 2, 2025, INNOVENT BIO announced a global exclusive collaboration licensing agreement with Roche, granting Roche the rights to develop, produce, and commercialize the targeted DLL3 ADC.

Global rights for IBI3009. According to the agreement, the company will receive an upfront payment of 8.0 million USD, up to 1 billion USD in potential development and commercialization milestone payments, and future sales-based royalties of up to mid-double digits.

CICC's main points are as follows:

DLL3 is a popular target for cancers such as small cell lung cancer (SCLC).

DLL3 is lowly expressed in normal tissues, but is highly expressed in SCLC and other neuroendocrine tumors. Especially for SCLC patients, prognosis is poor and highly invasive; traditional therapies like chemotherapy and PD-L1 antibodies yield modest survival benefits. DLL3 is highly expressed in up to 85% of SCLC, making it a potential therapeutic target. In recent years, the market has explored various technical pathways around the DLL3 target, including dual antibodies, tri-antibodies, ADCs, CAR-T, and nuclear medicine, with frequent early pipeline trades. In May 2024, Amgen's Tarlatamab received accelerated FDA approval for the treatment of SCLC, becoming the first approved DLL3/CD3 dual antibody, proving the target's druggability.

IBI3009 is one of the potentially best-in-class and leading DLL3 ADCs in development.

According to the company's announcement, IBI3009 is developed based on the company's proprietary TOPi platform, showing encouraging anti-tumor activity and good safety profile in multiple tumor-rechallenged mouse models, particularly in chemotherapy-resistant models.

IBI3009 has received IND approval in Australia, China, and the USA, and the first administration of Phase I clinical studies was completed in December 2024. According to the agreement, both parties will collaborate on early development, with Roche responsible for Global clinical development. It is recommended to pay attention to subsequent clinical progress and data releases.

The commercialization pipeline is continuously enriching, and multiple growth points in 2025 are worth looking forward to.

Since November 2024, the company has announced the inclusion of Torelicizumab injection (PCSK9) in the national medical insurance catalog for 2025, the approval for the indication of Sintilimab combined with Furmonertinib for endometrial cancer, and obtained domestic sales rights for Eli Lilly and Co's Paltuxizumab, among others. In addition, on January 3, the company announced that Tazemetostat (ROS1) was approved for the full line of lung cancer treatment domestically, with a cORR as high as 91% in treatment-naive patients. The organization looks forward to the pipeline meeting the incremental growth in 2025 and recommends paying attention to multiple R&D and commercialization milestones for the company in 2025.

Risks

Research and development failures, partnerships not meeting expectations, commercialization not meeting expectations, and collective procurement price reductions.