考虑到美国经济仍具韧性，这可能会迫使美联储对未来降息持有更为谨慎的态度，这通常利好美元。独立分析师Hiren Garasondia就表示，当下是黄金多头进行获利了结的最佳时机。因为避险资金很有可能会从黄金流出并流入美元当中，在黄金的上行趋势被实际逆转之前，减少黄金的仓位是一个十分明智的选择。Statements made by Federal Reserve officials over the weekend have reinforced the view that the Fed will adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts this year.
According to Zhidu Finance APP, the remarks made by Federal Reserve officials over the weekend reinforced the view that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts this year. San Francisco Fed President Daly and Fed Governor Cook emphasized the need to end the fight against inflation and reach the Fed's 2% target. Gold prices fell by 0.7% last Friday. Following these statements from Fed officials, as of the time of writing, spot gold is trading around $2640 per ounce.
The latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve last month showed that officials have lowered their expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2025 to two. Fed Chairman Powell also indicated that there will be a more cautious pace regarding future rate cuts. This may be a disadvantage for gold. The price of gold soared 27% in 2024 to record highs, partly driven by the loosening of Fed monetary policy.
Considering that the US economy remains resilient, this might compel the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, which typically favors the dollar. Independent Analyst Hiren Garasondia stated that now is the best time for gold bulls to take profits. This is because safe-haven funds are likely to flow out of gold and into dollars, and reducing gold positions before the uptrend in gold is completely reversed is a very wise choice.
However, looking ahead to 2025, some analysts still expect gold to shine again. Analysts indicated that as investors become disappointed with declining yields, a portion of the $3.7 trillion held by money market funds will enter ETFs that hold gold, which JPMorgan analyst Greg Shearer called the "most bullish part of the gold cycle." The analyst pointed out that another advantage of gold is that this Metal has almost no other uses besides storing wealth, "gold does not have the industrial burden of other CSI Commodity Equity Index, which is dragged down by disruptions in trade."
In addition, State Street believes that gold prices still have room for appreciation in 2025. The bank expects gold prices to fluctuate between $2600 and $2900 per ounce in 2025, with the potential to rise to $3100 per ounce. The bank is bullish on gold for three main reasons: the central bank's enthusiasm for purchasing gold will continue, helping to offset the negative impact of a strong dollar on gold prices; consumer demand in China and India is growing, and local gold ...Mutual fundsThe increase in ETFs and regulations encouraging the Hold of Gold are driving demand; loose MMF policies and the fiscal policies of the Trump administration may increase the USA deficit and drive up inflation, which will reduce the purchase of Gold relative to the dollar or US Treasury bonds.opportunity cost。
