从销量角度看：25Q1受24Q1春节消费带动下，基数仍较高，且由于25年春节较早（2025年1月29日为春节），预计25年春节渠道节前备货确认为24Q4收入；进入25Q2后，啤酒板块进入低基数（尤其青啤，24Q2&Q3销量近5年销量低点），基本面修复弹性相对较大。从吨均价角度看：该行认为随着即饮渠道持续修复，啤酒行业高端化进程有望加速，带动基本面持续改善。成本端看，当前大麦成本仍下行，但铝材有所上行，预计25年成本红利幅度较24年有所减弱。Beer stocks collectively declined; as of the time of writing, CHINA RES BEER (00291) dropped by 4.16%, priced at 23.05 HKD; BUD APAC (01876) fell by 2.77%, priced at 7.02 HKD; TSINGTAO BREW (00168) decreased by 1.02%, priced at 53.15 HKD.
According to Zhituo Finance APP, beer stocks collectively fell, as of the time of writing, CHINA RES BEER (00291) dropped 4.16%, at 23.05 HKD; BUD APAC (01876) fell 2.77%, at 7.02 HKD; TSINGTAO BREW (00168) decreased by 1.02%, at 53.15 HKD.
On the news front, a recent Research Report from Founder Securities pointed out that the weak demand environment in 2024 has dragged on performance to some extent, with hope for a fundamental recovery in 2025. The overall Beer Sector in 2024 was pressured on the volume side due to the external consumer environment, with price upgrades slowing down. Yanjing & Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery were driven by the release of high-end products, showing overall fundamentals better than the industry. Amid fundamentals being dragged down, the sector faced certain pressure, but starting from the end of September, the sector saw significant recovery influenced by policy implementation, although it is still at a low valuation level compared to the past five years. Looking ahead to 2025, the expectation is that ongoing policy implementation will continue to accelerate the recovery of Dining consumption, and the Beer Sector is likely to benefit first.
From a sales perspective: Q1 2025 is expected to experience a relatively high base due to the consumption brought by the Spring Festival in Q1 2024, and as the Spring Festival in 2025 is relatively early (January 29, 2025), it is anticipated that the pre-holiday inventory confirmations for the Spring Festival in 2025 will be recognized as Q4 2024 revenue. After entering Q2 2025, the Beer Sector will be in a low base (especially for Qingdao Beer, with sales in Q2 & Q3 2024 being close to a five-year low), which offers relatively large elastics for fundamental recovery. From the perspective of average price per ton: it is believed that as the ready-to-drink channel continues to recover, the process of high-end development in the beer industry is expected to accelerate, leading to an ongoing improvement in fundamentals. On the cost side, current barley costs are still declining, but Aluminum materials have seen an increase, and it is expected that the cost benefits in 2025 will be weaker than those in 2024.
