作为台积电的最大客户，苹果的这一推迟虽不至于让台积电面临困境，但仍警示了一定风险。目前，台积电2纳米制程的良率仅60%，大大增加了每片晶圆的成本，也给业内竞争对手看到了追赶的希望。According to news from ①, Apple has postponed plans to apply TSMC's 2-nm chip, or delayed until 2026; ② TSMC's 2-nm process yield is currently only 60%, making it expensive, which is an important reason why many companies are looking for diversified supply; ③ Nvidia and Qualcomm seem to be currently cooperating with Samsung to test the 2-nm chip process to break TSMC's dominant pattern.
Finance Association, January 6 (Editor Malan) Apple originally planned to use TSMC's 2nm chips in the iPhone 17 series, but according to the latest news, due to the high cost of this process, the price of each silicon wafer was as high as 0.03 million US dollars, forcing Apple to delay this plan.
According to some sources, Apple may postpone the batch launch plan for 2 nm chips until 2026, that is, to be applied on the iPhone 18 series. Meanwhile, the iPhone 17 will continue to use TSMC's 3 nm chip to allow time for TSMC to upgrade its 2 nm process.
As TSMC's biggest customer, Apple's delay did not cause TSMC to face difficulties, but it still warned of certain risks. Currently, the yield of TSMC's 2 nm process is only 60%, which greatly increases the cost per wafer and gives industry competitors hope to catch up.
Among them, the South Korean side once again claimed that Nvidia and Qualcomm may also shift orders for cutting-edge chips to Samsung Electronics' 2 nm process. Part of the consideration is TSMC's high cost and limited production capacity.
Samsung Electronics is expected to begin trial production of 2 nm chips in the first quarter of this year. Additionally, another mainstream supplier, Japan's Rapidus, is building a plant in Hokkaido with the goal of mass production of 2 nm wafers in 2027.
plurality
TSMC will test production of 2 nm chips in April this year. According to industry estimates, TSMC's 2 nm production capacity will increase from 10,000 wafers per month during trial production to 80,000 wafers by 2026.
Until TSMC stabilizes production, the 2nm chip market is expected to experience fierce competition or change the future development pattern of the high-end chip industry. Among them, the one that is most likely to impact TSMC's position is Samsung.
According to reports, Samsung previously stole a customer from TSMC, the Japanese AI startup Preferred Networks, and is currently cooperating with large Silicon Valley technology companies such as Nvidia and Qualcomm to test the 2 nm process.
This is also one of the efforts of large technology companies to diversify their supply chains. Many companies don't want to see TSMC alone in a situation where they use their monopoly position to control prices.
However, the current yield of Samsung and Rapidus 2-nanometer chips is less than that of TSMC, and Samsung's mediocre performance in high-end manufacturing processes in the past is also a source of concern for many companies. Therefore, the industry estimates that future development is more likely to be a “dual source” coexistence, that is, TSMC and Samsung equally share orders from one company and use humans to create competition.
And if Samsung is unable to kill the bleeding path before TSMC completes its market monopoly, then high-end chips will once again return to the situation where TSMC is alone. Samsung's chip foundry business will also be in desperation, and it is currently facing losses of several billion dollars.
