Author: Frances Yue, Market Watch; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance.

An Analyst stated that Bitcoin could rise to a historical high of over $125,000 in the first quarter, or it could drop to $77,000 - the key lies in whether the elected president Donald Trump will fulfill his promises to the Cryptos Industry shortly after taking office.

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of the crypto lending platform Ledn and former Director at Barclays Investment Bank, stated that according toTechnical analysis.the Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin is expected to drop to $89,000 and then break through $125,000 in the first quarter of 2025.

The Elliott Wave Theory posits that asset prices consist of five waves moving in the direction of the primary trend and three corrective waves moving against it in each cycle. Each corrective wave is followed by a wave moving in the direction of the primary trend.

Glover stated in a phone interview: "Earlier this week, we saw Bitcoin drop below $92,000, so before moving towards $125,000, we may have already completed the corrective wave."

Glover stated that if Bitcoin breaks through $125,000, it may experience another pullback before nearing the cyclical high of around $160,000.

Glover indicated that as investors take profits, Bitcoin may see a pullback before Trump's inauguration on January 20.

Crypto bulls anticipate that the regulatory environment will become more favorable during Trump's presidency. They are watching whether the incoming president will quickly deliver on his promises to the crypto industry, particularly regarding his commitment to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the USA, although Trump has not detailed any specific plans.

Glover mentioned that if Trump does not take any action to fulfill his promises during the early days of his presidency—especially in the first 100 days—Bitcoin may pull back. Politicians and analysts often use the first 100 days of a government as a benchmark to measure the potential achievements and impacts of a new USA president.

However, Glover pointed out that based on technical setups, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $77,000.

Analysts from the blockchain data platform Glassnode stated that investors should also closely monitor the $87,000 level, which represents the short-term holding cost basis for Bitcoin, assuming crypto valuations are reasonable. This 'on-chain' analysis examines data directly recorded on the blockchain network to gain insights into market trends or investor behavior.

Analysts noted that there is a demand gap for Bitcoin's price between $87,000 and $71,000, making the former a 'make or break' level for Bitcoin's short-term price. Glassnode analysts noted that this level acts as support in an upward trend; however, if decisively broken, Bitcoin's price could turn into a resistance level, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

QCP Capital analysts suggested that another key catalyst for Bitcoin in January could be portfolio rebalancing by Financial Institutions. Hedge funds and asset managers typically choose to rebalance portfolios in January to establish a strategy for the year, adapt to market conditions, and optimize tax impacts.

QCP Analyst pointed out that this year the allocation to Bitcoin may increase, as more and more Institutions have adopted Bitcoin since the launch of the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund last year, and strategists expect the regulatory environment for Cryptos to improve.