根据产业在线，2025年1-3月我国家用空调排产分别1714、1440、2498万台，同比分别-1.5%、+22.6%、+14.5%。结构上，内销方面，1-3月我国空调内销排产分别724、669、1390万台，同比分别-1.1%、+10.2%、+12.5%，除1月受到春节错期等因素影响同比略有下滑外，2-3月仍保持较快增速。在2025年更加积极宏观政策和更大力度的消费政策刺激下，预计上半年产销仍有增长空间。Due to factors such as insufficient remaining production quotas at the end of the year, domestic refrigerant companies will operate at low levels in December 2024, with widespread large-scale shutdowns for maintenance. Mainstream production companies have low inventory levels of quotas, which supports the rise in refrigerant prices.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Debang Securities released a Research Report stating that due to factors such as insufficient production quotas at the end of the year, domestic refrigerant companies will start operations at low levels in December 2024, with widespread large-scale production shut-downs for maintenance. The quota inventory of mainstream production companies is at a low level, which supports the rise in refrigerant prices. Meanwhile, the recent incident at the GFL facility in India has caused a shutdown, which may further provide Bullish support for the R32 foreign trade market price. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of January 3, the prices of R22, R32, R125, and R134a were 33,000, 43,000, 42,000, and 42,500 yuan/ton respectively, up 1.5%, 7.5%, 10.5%, and 9.0% compared to last month. Additionally, in Q1 2025, the long-term contracts for mainstream Air Conditioner manufacturers will be settled, with R32 and R410a prices at 39,800 and 40,800 yuan/ton respectively, increasing by 6.1% and 11.8% quarter-on-quarter, both showing an upward trend.
During the Spring Festival, domestic sales have been adjusted downwards, while foreign sales demand remains strong.
According to the Industry Online, from January to March 2025, the domestic production volumes of household Air Conditioners in our country are 17.14, 14.4, and 24.98 million units respectively, showing changes of -1.5%, +22.6%, and +14.5% year-on-year. In terms of structure, for domestic sales, from January to March, the domestic production volumes of Air Conditioners are 7.24, 6.69, and 13.9 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.1%, +10.2%, and +12.5%. Except for January, which saw a slight decline due to the Spring Festival timing issues, February and March maintain a relatively fast growth rate. Under more proactive macroeconomic policies and stronger consumer policy stimulation in 2025, production and sales in the first half of the year are still expected to have growth potential.
In terms of foreign sales, from January to March, our country's Air Conditioner export production volumes are 9.9, 7.71, and 11.08 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of +10.1%, +23.3%, and +10.0%, continuing the previous high growth trend. Emerging Markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are experiencing significant growth, and the overseas bases of major home appliance manufacturers are expected to gradually release production capacity in 2025, driving a continuous upward trend in home appliance exports.
The quota plan has officially been implemented, and the Industry is expected to maintain a Bullish outlook.
On December 16, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment officially released the "Notice on the Setting and Allocation Scheme for the Total Quota of Ozone-Depleting Substances and Hydrofluorocarbons for the Year 2025". According to this plan, China's production/domestic usage quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) will be 0.164/0.086 million tons, a reduction of 67.5% from the baseline production volume. Supported by the downstream demand mainly from the Air Conditioner maintenance market, there may be elasticity in price increases. The production/domestic quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) are set at 0.792/0.39 million tons, an increase of 0.046/0.05 million tons from 2024, with the quota for R32 increased by 0.041 million tons, which is a slight decrease from the previous target of 0.045 million tons in the September draft for public consultation, overall slightly exceeding market expectations.
Debon Securities believes that the increase in the R32 quota this time is due to strong consumption demand in downstream Air Conditioner and other sectors, as well as the consideration of the HCFC quota reduction gap in 2025. Additionally, the new quota can also mitigate the sudden risks associated with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's temporary quotas to some extent. Given the strong constraints on the supply side, a Bullish outlook on the sustained long-cycle prosperity of refrigerants is expected.
Recommended symbols to pay attention to: Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry (603379.SH), Zhejiang Juhua (600160.SH), DONGYUE GROUP (00189), Haohua Chemical Science& Technology Corp. (600378.SH), and Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH).
Risk warnings: policies may not meet expectations, demand may not meet expectations, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.
