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“特朗普冲击”叫停黄金盛宴?高盛改口:年底金价恐难升至3000美元

"Is the 'Trump Shock' putting an end to the Gold feast? Goldman Sachs changes its stance: Gold prices may struggle to rise to 3,000 dollars by the end of the year."

cls.cn ·  Jan 6 17:49

Goldman Sachs expects that by the end of the year, Gold prices may not rise to $3,000 due to the potential reduction in the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 under Trump's policy; Goldman Sachs points out that the continued purchasing of Gold by central banks is a key long-term driver for Gold prices, and they expect that by mid-2026, the central banks' average monthly purchase volume will reach 38 tons.

According to a report from Caixin, on January 6 (Editor: Liu Rui), following Trump's election victory, market concerns about inflation in the USA were rekindled. Against this backdrop, Gold has seen a slight pause in its upward momentum over the past two months, while Wall Street giants, who were previously very optimistic about Gold price prospects, have begun to change their stance.

Goldman Sachs Analysts recently changed their forecast and no longer expect the Gold price to reach their previous expectation of $3,000 per ounce by the end of this year, as they anticipate the Fed will reduce the rate cuts in 2025. They have lowered the Target Price for Gold at the end of the year to $2,910 per ounce and expect that the Fed might only cut rates by 75 basis points within the year.

Goldman Sachs changes its stance: Gold may not rise to $3,000 by the end of the year.

With the support of the Fed's rate cuts, rising market risk aversion, and the ongoing purchases by central banks around the world, Gold surged 27% cumulatively in 2024, reaching a historic high. However, with Trump's election victory boosting the US dollar, the momentum of Gold's rise has stalled since early November 2024.

There are widespread concerns in the market that under Trump's tax cuts and increased tariffs, prices in the USA will face greater upward pressure. Recently, several Fed officials have begun to emphasize the necessity of adopting a more cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025 as fears of inflation in the USA have reignited, further pressuring Gold prices.

As the upward momentum for Gold weakens, Goldman Sachs's Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, along with other analysts, have also revised their previous expectations.

They now believe that the rhythm of monetary easing by the Fed in 2025 is expected to slow down, which will suppress market demand for Gold ETFs, leading to the Gold price only reaching $2,910 per ounce by the end of 2025, falling short of their previous $3,000 target.

They also expect that Gold prices will only reach the $3,000 mark by mid-2026.

Central bank purchases are a continuous support factor.

Goldman Sachs Analysts also wrote in the report that due to the easing of political uncertainty after the USA election, the fund flows of the Gold ETF in December 2024 are weaker than expected, which also leads to a lower starting price for Gold in 2025.

Analysts stated: "Two opposing forces – declining speculative demand and increased structural buying by central banks – are significantly offsetting each other, keeping Gold prices within a Range in recent months."

They added that the central bank's continued purchases of Gold will remain a key driving factor for long-term Gold prices. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects that by mid-2026, the average monthly Gold purchase volume by central banks will reach 38 tons.

Goldman Sachs economists currently expect that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, a reduction lower than their previous forecast of 100 basis points.

However, this prediction is more dovish than the current general market expectation, as Goldman Sachs believes that the USA's potential inflation rate is still trending downwards. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, by December 2025, the market believes that the Federal Reserve is most likely (34.9% chance) to only cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 30.7% chance of only cutting by 50 basis points.

CME Fed Watch Tool (Market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate level in December 2025)

In addition, there are market participants concerned that during Trump's second term, changes in government policy could lead the Federal Reserve's interest rates to rise instead of fall, although Goldman Sachs doubts this speculation.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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