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Is Tidewater (NYSE:TDW) A Risky Investment?

Is Tidewater (NYSE:TDW) A Risky Investment?

海潮能源(紐交所:TDW)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  01/06 18:55

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Tidewater Inc. (NYSE:TDW) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

一些人認爲,波動性而非債務是投資者思考風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地說過:'波動性遠非風險的同義詞。' 所以,聰明的錢知道,債務——通常涉及破產——是評估公司風險時一個非常重要的因素。我們可以看到,Tidewater Inc. (紐交所:TDW) 確實在其業務中使用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務造成了多大的風險?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時會變得危險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當企業無法輕鬆地用自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格融資來履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會變得有風險。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法支付其債權人,可能會破產。然而,更爲常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,以此來補充其資產負債表,從而永久稀釋股東的股份。話雖如此,最常見的情況是,公司在管理其債務方面做得相當不錯,並使其變得對自己有利。考慮一家公司債務水平的第一步是將其現金和債務結合起來考慮。

What Is Tidewater's Net Debt?

Tidewater的淨債務是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Tidewater had US$650.5m of debt in September 2024, down from US$743.7m, one year before. However, it also had US$280.8m in cash, and so its net debt is US$369.6m.

您可以點擊下方圖形查看歷史數據,但它顯示Tidewater在2024年9月的債務爲65050萬美元,比一年前的74370萬美元有所下降。然而,它也有28080萬美元的現金,因此其淨債務爲36960萬美元。

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NYSE:TDW Debt to Equity History January 6th 2025
紐交所:TDW債務與股本歷史 2025年1月6日

A Look At Tidewater's Liabilities

審視Tidewater的負債

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Tidewater had liabilities of US$273.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$659.7m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$280.8m in cash and US$293.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$359.4m.

從最近的資產負債表來看,Tidewater的負債爲27360萬美元,即將在一年內到期,65970萬美元的負債將在更長時間到期。相應的是,它有28080萬美元的現金和29310萬美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債比現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和多出35940萬美元。

Of course, Tidewater has a market capitalization of US$2.95b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

當然,Tidewater的市值爲29.5億美金,因此這些負債可能是可以管理的。話雖如此,顯然我們應該繼續關注其資產負債表,以免情況變得更糟。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們通過查看公司的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比例來衡量公司相對於其收益能力的債務負擔,以及計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)覆蓋利息支出的能力(利息覆蓋率)。因此,我們在考慮收益時同時考慮了折舊與攤銷費用及不考慮這些費用的情況。

While Tidewater's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.85 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 3.9 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Notably, Tidewater's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 156% on last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tidewater's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

雖然Tidewater的低債務與EBITDA比率爲0.85僅表明其適度使用債務,但去年EBIT僅能覆蓋利息費用3.9倍的事實確實讓我們感到擔憂。但利息支付毫無疑問足以讓我們考慮其負債的可負擔性。值得注意的是,Tidewater的EBIT較去年大幅增長156%。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域。但未來的收益,勝過其他因素,將決定Tidewater在未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Tidewater produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,儘管稅務官可能熱愛會計利潤,但貸方只接受實打實的現金。因此,邏輯步驟是查看EBIT中與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,Tidewater產生了強勁的自由現金流,佔其EBIT的64%,這大致是我們所期望的。這筆實打實的現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

The good news is that Tidewater's demonstrated ability to grow its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its interest cover. Zooming out, Tidewater seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. After all, sensible leverage can boost returns on equity. We'd be motivated to research the stock further if we found out that Tidewater insiders have bought shares recently. If you would too, then you're in luck, since today we're sharing our list of reported insider transactions for free.

好消息是,Tidewater展示了增長其EBIT的能力,這讓我們像絨毛小狗對幼兒的吸引一樣高興。但從更嚴肅的角度來看,我們對它的利息覆蓋率有些擔憂。放遠來看,Tidewater似乎合理地使用了債務;這讓我們感到滿意。畢竟,合理的槓桿可以提升股本回報。如果我們發現Tidewater的內部人士最近購買了股票,我們會更有動力去進一步研究這隻股票。如果你也是如此,那麼運氣就來了,因爲今天我們分享最新的內部交易報告,免費提供。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

無論最終結果如何,有時候更容易關注那些根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費獲取一份淨債務爲零的成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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