企业业绩指引不明确是本财报季的最大风险，因为在新政府上台前，企业可能很难提供明确的指引。JPMorgan's trading team stated that although the risks faced by the strong rise in the stock market are increasing, the chances of a bear market downturn are extremely low in the context of strong economic growth.
After the S&P 500 Index rose more than 20% for two consecutive years, the USA stock market could see a correction of 4%-5% or even 10%, but with GDP above trend levels, the bull market remains intact, according to a report sent to clients on Monday by a team led by Andrew Tyler, Global Market Intelligence Chief.
"While I expect earnings volatility to increase, I believe we will see a stronger earnings season as macro data continues to strengthen," Tyler said.
Unclear corporate performance guidance is the biggest risk this earnings season, as it may be difficult for companies to provide clear guidance before the new government takes office.
Tyler reiterated the current call stance but outlined a checklist of bear market risks: AI growth fatigue, bond yields, consumer fractures, corporate debt refinancing, earnings, rising inflation, liquidity, policy uncertainty, trade wars, USA credit downgrades, valuations.
Differing from Tyler's team, JPMorgan research strategist stated last Friday that while high valuations make the stock market more susceptible to corrections, significant events are needed to trigger a substantial decline.
"It will likely take very weak labor market data or catalysts such as a significant unexpected rise in inflation to cause a more prolonged decline in the stock market and pull back towards 'cheap' area mean reversion," strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated in the report.