According to Smart Finance APP, Guolian released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Autos-W (09868), forecasting rapid growth in sales in the future, with expected sales of 0.442/0.652 million units for 2025/2026 respectively. The corresponding revenues for 2024-2026 are estimated to be 43.54/94.75/136.41 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.9%/117.6%/44.0%. The net income attributable to the parent company is expected to be -6.2/-0.59/4.31 billion yuan. The launch of high-quality models is expected to usher in a turning point in sales, and the iteration of intelligent driving is expected to help the company achieve a reversal in financial data, with the collaboration with Volkswagen set to realize revenue thanks to CSI Leading Technology Index.

Event: On January 1, 2025, Xiaopeng Autos will release delivery data for December 2024 and the total delivery data for the whole year of 2024. In December 2024, Xiaopeng Autos delivered 0.037 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 82%. For the whole year of 2024, Xiaopeng Autos' cumulative deliveries reached 0.19 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.2%.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

High-quality models lead the way, looking forward to a strong new car cycle in 2025.

In December 2024, Xiaopeng Autos delivered a total of 36,695 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 82% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. Among them, over 15,000 units of Xiaopeng MONA M03 were delivered; over 10,000 units of Xiaopeng P7+ were delivered. For the whole year of 2024, Xiaopeng Autos accumulated deliveries of 0.19 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, with 0.092 million units delivered in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by the rapid increase in sales from the launch of Mona and P7+. The institution believes that after completing the management structure adjustment, Xiaopeng has the capability to create blockbuster models and achieve stable sales. In 2025, Xiaopeng Autos will refresh old models such as G6/G9, while also supplementing the current product matrix with the Fuyou architecture, which is expected to open up a strong new car cycle in the future.

The acceleration of intelligent driving equality is expected to expand user loyalty in smart driving.

In December, the penetration rate of XNGP urban intelligent driving monthly active users reached 85%, and Xiaopeng XOS 5.5.0 started public testing, launching a software with continuous "parking space to parking space" functionality. Xiaopeng introduced the AI Eagle Eye vision solution, effectively addressing issues such as light differences, and will debut in the new Xiaopeng P7+ model coming in October 2024. The Xiaopeng P7+ will come standard with end-to-end AI intelligent driving for all models, with no options, subscriptions, or fees required. Xiaopeng Motors continues to iterate on vehicle functionalities, with Xiaopeng XOS 5.5.0 being the 373rd OTA version and the 1149th new feature, expected to enhance user retention.

The global strategy is accelerating, with the potential for increased sales in overseas markets.

The globalization layout is accelerating, with overseas markets becoming another growth driver. In December, Xiaopeng Motors completed the delivery of the 10,000th new vehicle in Europe in Ebersberg, Germany, and officially opened its first flagship store in Australia, while simultaneously large-scale shipments of Xiaopeng G6 were sent to Australia. The continuous expansion of the overseas market may fulfill sales expectations abroad.

Risk warning: Progress in autonomous driving, overseas expansion may not meet expectations, and increased competition risks.