1月5日，高盛衍生品策略师John Marshall指出，股票融资利差（equity funding spreads）是衡量专业投资者头寸的重要指标，这一指标在去年12月18日美联储公布鹰派政策立场后出现显著下降，意味着机构投资者正在大幅减少杠杆多头头寸。Marshall在报告中强调：Hedge funds have continuously net Sold USA Stocks for the past five Trading days, with the selling pace being the fastest in over seven months. Goldman Sachs believes this could be an important warning signal for investors.
Hedge funds are shorting collectively, and Wall Street is sounding the alarm.
Recently, the US stock market has been reaching new highs, but an unsettling phenomenon is catching the attention of Wall Street Analysts — according to the latest report from Goldman Sachs, institutional investors, especially hedge funds, are massively shorting the US stock market, which could be an important warning signal for stock investors.
On January 5, Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist John Marshall pointed out that equity funding spreads are an important indicator for measuring professional investors' positions. This indicator saw a significant decline after the Federal Reserve announced a hawkish policy stance on December 18, indicating that institutional investors are substantially reducing leveraged long positions. Marshall emphasized in the report:
‘The selling through futures channels continued this week, evident in the decline of leveraged long financing costs. The weakness in financing spreads on Thursday is an important phenomenon, demonstrating that the changes in December are not just related to year-end factors.’
Goldman Sachs trader Vincent Lin also confirmed this trend, stating in a report on January 3:
‘Hedge funds have consecutively net sold US stocks in the past five trading days, with the speed of selling being the fastest in over seven months.’
Specifically:
Global Equity has experienced the largest net Sell in over 7 months, mainly driven by short selling operations;
Net Sell occurred in all regions, particularly evident in North America and emerging Asia markets;
Both macro products and individual Stocks faced net Sell, accounting for 77% and 23% of the total net Sell respectively;
Among the 11 Global sectors, 8 faced net Sell, led by Medical Care, Finance, and Industry; only Information Technology, Materials, and NENGYUANHANGYE had net Buy.
Marshall believes that despite the valuation of US Stocks being at historical highs for several months, 'this is the first time in years that we have seen these two position Indicators (financing spreads and hedge fund net positions) experiencing significant Sell simultaneously.' Referring to December 2021, when concerns over monetary policy triggered Sell by professional investors, the S&P 500 Index subsequently experienced a 10-month decline.
However, some views suggest that unless significant macro factors trigger large-scale Sell, this round of Sell may eventually evolve into another large-scale hedge fund short squeeze, pushing the S&P 500 Index to new highs.
