摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Ellen Zentner表示，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚在上个月的会议上发出了“强硬暂停”的信号。美联储在当时的政策声明中表示，将在"考虑进一步调整的程度和时机"时审视经济形势。According to Morgan Stanley, the Federal Reserve has sent a signal of a "hard pause" in December. Senior economists from the Obama administration believe that if the labor market remains healthy, the Fed may only cut interest rates once this year, and if the CPI rises back above 3%, the possibility of a rate hike in 2025 cannot be ruled out.
In 2025, how will the Federal Reserve proceed with its new year's easing policy?
According to the views of well-known economists who attended the American Economic Association meeting in San Francisco last weekend, the Federal Reserve may maintain a wait-and-see attitude this year, possibly only lowering interest rates once.
Ellen Zentner, chief USA economist at Morgan Stanley, stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his colleagues sent a "strong pause" signal at last month's meeting. In the policy statement at that time, the Federal Reserve indicated it would review economic conditions when "considering the extent and timing of further adjustments."
Zentner believes this means "if we were to take any further action, we would inform you."
Is the prospect of interest rate cuts this year limited?
Jason Furman, a Harvard University professor and former senior economist in the Obama administration, believes that if the labor market remains healthy, the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year. He pointed out that the Fed has shifted to a new phase where it requires "justification" for interest rate cuts, which is different from last year’s perspective of "everything is fine, so we might as well cut rates."
Furman stated that if conditions remain unchanged, considering the inflation outlook and whether interest rates are in the optimal Range that neither stimulates nor suppresses demand, there might be at most one cut of 25 basis points. However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve will adopt an easing policy.
Karen Dynan, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a professor at Harvard University, expects three interest rate cuts this year. She believes the Federal Reserve aims to prevent economic deterioration through moderate cuts.
Economists expect economic growth to continue this year, but also acknowledge significant risks, primarily from the policy plans of the new Trump administration. Dynan estimates that the probability of the economy staying on track this year is about 75%. She points out that the wealth effect from last year's stock market rise, as well as improved consumer and business confidence, will support the economy.
Furman expects economic growth to slightly slow this year, trending towards a growth rate of 1.5%-2%, lower than the expected over 3% growth in the fourth quarter. He stated:
"Many factors are driving the economy slightly in an unfavorable direction."
Furman warns that if the personal consumption expenditure price index inflation rate favored by the Federal Reserve returns to above 3% by mid-year, the Federal Reserve may consider changing its policy direction. Last November, the overall inflation rate was 2.4%.
Notably, Furman does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates in 2025.
