年度电影市场收官，关注后续供给拐点。根据灯塔专业版数据，全国12月票房23.50亿元(含服务费)，同比下跌40.45%，环比上涨25.20%。需求端，12月放映场次1150.7万场，同比上涨1.59%，环比上涨2.22%；上座率4.3%，同比下跌38.57%，环比上涨22.86%；观影人次0.59亿，同比下跌39.18%，环比上涨22.92%。12月上映影片数58部，影片数同环比分别下跌26.58%，1.69%。目前已有28部重点影片预计于1月上映,关注后续重点影片的定档和上线情况。Looking ahead to 2025, the performance of key sectors in media is expected to stabilize with high certainty, and there is a bullish outlook for varieties with stable performance foundations or noticeable improvements from external factors. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: cyclical consumer sectors, AI applications, and State-owned Enterprise Reform.
According to a Research Report released by China Galaxy Securities, looking ahead to 2025, the performance of key sectors in the media industry is expected to stabilize with high certainty, and the subsequent performance foundations of resilient varieties with significant external improvement are considered Bullish. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) Consumer: attention should be paid to TENCENT, which has a solid fundamental, and Bilibili, which has turned from losses to profit for the first time and is expected to improve continuously; Focus Media Information Technology (002027.SZ), which is a leader in building media and cinema screen advertising; Bona Film Group (001330.SZ), which benefits from the recovery of the Movie Theater Line; and Beijing Ultrapower Software (300002.SZ), which excels in the SLG category and gaming external markets. 2) State-owned Enterprises: attention should be paid to Shandong Publishing&Media (601019.SH), which has stable main business and continuously expanding external business. 3) AI Applications: companies related to content production empowered by AI, such as Kunlun Tech (300418.SZ) and Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ).
The main viewpoints of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
The annual movie market has come to a close. Attention is on the subsequent supply inflection point. According to data from the Lighthouse Professional Version, the nationwide box office in December was 2.35 billion yuan (including service fees), a year-on-year decline of 40.45%, but a month-on-month increase of 25.20%. In terms of demand, December showed 11.507 million screenings, a year-on-year increase of 1.59% and a month-on-month increase of 2.22%; the occupancy rate was 4.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 38.57% but a month-on-month increase of 22.86%; the number of viewers reached 0.059 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 39.18% but a month-on-month increase of 22.92%. A total of 58 films were released in December, with the number of films showing a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 26.58% and 1.69%, respectively. Currently, 28 key films are expected to be released in January, and attention should be paid to the scheduling and availability of subsequent key films.
The gaming market scale has reached a new high, with remarkable growth in self-developed games going overseas: In 2024, the domestic game market's actual sales revenue reached 325.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53%. The number of game users reached 0.674 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%. In terms of sub-markets, the actual sales revenue of China's mobile game market in 2024 was 238.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.01%. The actual sales revenue of the client game market was 67.981 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. The growth of the client game market is mainly due to the stable performance of long-lasting games, as well as the simultaneous release of several new mobile games on the PC end. In 2024, the actual sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in the overseas market reached 18.557 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.39%. In the face of a slowing global gaming market and increasingly fierce competition in the international environment, domestic gaming companies are responding actively and still performing excellently.
The marketing large cap is undergoing a phase adjustment, with differentiated trends in sub-categories: According to the "Overview of Advertising Market Placement Data from January to October 2024" released by CTR, the advertising market in October 2024 declined by 1.9% year-on-year. From the perspective of the changes in advertising expenditure across industries (major categories), from January to October 2024, the advertising expenditure for Cosmetics, Entertainment and Leisure, Postal and Telecommunications, and Alcoholic Beverages industries all increased by over 10% year-on-year, making them the main forces in advertising market placement.
WeChat's mini shop "gift gifting" feature is in testing, continuously laying out the e-commerce industry chain. On December 18, WeChat's mini shop officially launched a gray-scale test of the "gift gifting" feature. Except for jewelry and education categories, products with a retail price not exceeding 0.01 million yuan will default to support the "gift gifting" feature. It is believed that the WeChat mini shop is an e-commerce ecosystem derived from the WeChat platform, backed by WeChat's vast social relationship chain. The launch of the "gift gifting" feature has a process similar to that of the "red envelope" feature, compared to previous traditional channels for purchasing and sending gifts either by mailing or visitation, the social attribute and emotional value of WeChat mini shop are stronger, and the interaction is more immediate and convenient.
Risk warning: Risks of AI technology development progress not meeting expectations; risks of content regulation; risks of industry competition, and risks of related technology applications not meeting expectations.
