With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.9x NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 34x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
Recent times have been advantageous for NMI Holdings as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For NMI Holdings?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, NMI Holdings would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 19% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 76% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 7.1% each year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we can see why NMI Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that NMI Holdings maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for NMI Holdings with six simple checks.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than NMI Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
