Jefferies upgraded Instil Bio (NASDAQ:TIL), noting that 2024 was a banner year for the PD-(L)1xVEGF class.
Summit Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:SMMT) data from the primary analysis of the Phase 3 HARMONi-2 trial of ivonescimab conducted in China demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival compared to monotherapy Merck & Co Inc's (NYSE:MRK) Keytruda (pembrolizumab).
The trial update sparked industry buzz and drove Summit Therapeutic' stock up around 150%, BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) up ~40%, and Instil Bio up ~500%.
Jefferies estimates the PD-(L)1xVEGF class could reach over $40 billion, similar to the PD-(L)1 class.
Analyst Kelly Shi expects the hype to continue in 2025 with two key upcoming catalysts: Ivonescimab HARMONi-2 overall survival data (expected in YE25/Early26) and first global Phase 3 data (expected in mid-25).
The analyst anticipates positive results from both and continued excitement to attract more deals in the space.
Jefferies analyst sees an encouraging upside for Instil Bio as its SYN2510 is the third US asset with a global trial planned in 2025.
In September, Instil and ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) announced the global registrational strategy for the PD-L1xVEGF bispecific antibody SYN-2510/IMM2510 in combination with chemotherapy in front-line non-small cell lung cancer and in front-line triple-negative breast cancer.
Jefferies upgraded Instil Bio from Hold to Buy with a price target of $52, over a 300% jump from a prior target of $11.
SYN2510 is a promising contender in its field, with significant potential driven by clinical data updates and business development interest in this drug class.
In 2024, three deals with a total upfront of $1.4 billion and a deal value of $6.4 billion were announced.
SYN2510 (PD-L1xVEGF-trap), BioNTech's Biotheus deal for BNT327 and Merck's LM-299 deal mark the first big Pharma joining the fray, adding confidence in its mechanism of action.
Price Action: TIL stock is up 22.4% at $24.90 at last check Tuesday.
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