GLJ Research analyst Gordon L. Johnson II upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) to Buy from Sell rating with a price forecast of $14.27.
The analyst notes the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many acknowledge. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, and his pro-tariff policies likely impacting sectors like steel, the analyst foresee a potential rise in U.S. HRC prices in the near term.
In particular, the analyst says that following Trump's win (November 2016), and Joe Biden's win (November 2020), U.S. HRC spot prices rose by +25.5% and +65.9%, respectively, three months out. However, since Trump's win on November 5, 2024, U.S. HRC spot prices have declined by 6.9%.
Also, the positive seasonality typically seen in the U.S. steel sector from January to April, and CLF's stock performance in particular, raises the question: "Is now an opportune time to dip one's feet back into the 'long-U.S.-
steel-stocks pool'?" adds the analyst.
Notably, Johnson II states that from the month Trump was first elected to the month he lost to Biden, U.S. steel imports fell by a significant -51.1%, from 2.5 million tons to 1.2 million tons. This decline is often attributed to Trump's pro-U.S. steel policies.
Incorporating Stelco's additional tons into CLF's 2025 estimated output, and assuming U.S. HRC prices rise to $900/ton in May 2025 before falling to $705/ton by July, the analyst estimate CLF's 2025 aggregated steel price to be $1,055/ton, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $1,050.22/ton.
For 2026, Johnson II forecast an average price of $1,068/ton, reflecting a +1.2% year-over-year increase, vs. the consensus estimate of $1,084.42/ton.
Consequently, the analyst project 2025 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $945 million and -$0.56, respectively, vs. consensus estimates of $1.32 billion and -$0.09.
In 2026, the analyst expects adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $1.804 billion and $1.06, respectively, while the consensus estimates are $1.884 million and $0.69.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:SLX) and SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE:XME).
Price Action: CLF shares are up 1.26% at $10.03 at the last check Tuesday.
GLJ Research分析师Gordon L. Johnson II将克利夫兰-克利夫斯公司（纽约证券交易所代码：CLF）的评级从卖出上调至买入，预测价格为14.27美元。
这位分析师指出，美国经济的状况比许多人所承认的还要糟糕。唐纳德·特朗普定于2025年1月20日上任，其亲关税政策可能会影响钢铁等行业，分析师预计，短期内美国HRC价格可能会上涨。
特别是，万亿分析师表示，继特朗普获胜（2016年11月）和乔·拜登获胜（2020年11月）之后，美国HRC现货价格在三个月后分别上涨了+ 25.5％和+ 65.9％。但是，自特朗普于2024年11月5日获胜以来，美国HRC现货价格已经下跌了6.9％。
此外，1月至4月美国钢铁行业通常出现的积极季节性，尤其是CLF的股票表现，也提出了一个问题：“现在是重返'长期美国股市的好时机
钢铁股池'？”分析师补充说。
值得注意的是，约翰逊二世指出，从特朗普首次当选的那一月到他输给拜登的那一月，美国的钢铁进口量大幅下降了-51.1％，从250万吨降至120万吨。这种下降通常归因于特朗普的亲美钢铁政策。
将Stelco的额外吨数计入CLF的2025年预计产量，并假设美国HRC价格在2025年5月上涨至900美元/吨，然后在7月降至705美元/吨，分析师估计CLF的2025年总钢铁价格为1,055美元/吨，略高于市场普遍估计的1,050.22美元/吨。
约翰逊二世预测2026年的平均价格为1,068美元/吨，同比增长1.2％，而市场普遍估计为1,084.42美元/吨。
因此，分析师预计2025年调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润和调整后的每股收益分别为9.45亿美元和-0.56美元，而市场普遍预期为13.2亿美元和-0.09美元。
分析师预计，2026年，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润和调整后的每股收益分别为18.04亿美元和10.6美元，而市场普遍估计为18.84万美元和0.69美元。
投资者可以通过VanEck Steel ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：SLX）和SPDR标普金属与矿业ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：XME）获得股票敞口。
价格走势：在周二的最后一次检查中，CLF股价上涨1.26％，至10.03美元。
