周二， As the day approaches for Trump to officially take office as the president of the USA, concerns in the bond market about the inflation outlook are starting to rise, and Wall Street generally anticipates that US Treasury bonds will continue to decline. On Tuesday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond hit a 14-month high at 4.919%, nearing the 5% mark; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond climbed to 4.695% on Tuesday, marking the highest level since April of last year.
As the inauguration date of President Trump approaches, inflation worries are rising, and US Bonds are "continuously falling."
Only two weeks remain until Trump's inauguration, and investors are increasingly concerned about the tariff policies he proposed and the potential inflation effects they may bring. Over the past month, both 10-year and 30-year US Bonds yields have risen by approximately 50 basis points.
On Tuesday, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ On Tuesday, it climbed to 4.699%, reaching a new high since April of last year.
$U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ On Monday, it closed at 4.836%, the highest level in 14 months, and further increased to 4.92% on Tuesday.
In addition to tariffs, the bond market is also concerned that Trump's domestic tax cuts, plans to eliminate tips, and social security benefits tax may lead to increased government borrowing. Institutions estimate that Trump's proposals could increase US Bonds by $7.8 trillion over the next decade.
BlackRock's Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist for the Americas, Gargi Chaudhuri, stated:
“We need some certainty regarding fiscal policy, and as the inauguration takes place, we will hear more relevant information. The uncertainty surrounding increased issuance of US Bonds will keep buyers cautious.”
Moreover, the latest ISM Services PMI data indicates that US service sector activity has exceeded expectations, dampening the Fed's interest rate cut outlook and further raising concerns about inflation.
This week, in remembrance of former US President Jimmy Carter, the US Treasury advanced the bond auction schedule. BMO Capital Markets Analyst Ian Lyngen pointed out that the changes in the auction schedule "concentrated supply in the first half of this week, leading to a relatively heavy trading atmosphere."
Several Wall Street Analysts predict that US Bond yields still have room to rise, even targeting 5%.
Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, has raised the near-term target for 10-year US Bond yields to 4.75%. Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, forecasts that the average yield for 10-year US Bonds will reach 5.23%. Steven Ricchiuto, Chief Economist for Mizuho Securities in the USA, believes that the yield for 10-year US Bonds could reach around 5%.
Despite the steady rise in yields, some investors still see opportunities. According to JPMorgan's latest client survey, long positions in 10-year US Bond contracts have increased to the highest level in over a year, but short positions have also grown over the past week.
Editor/Somer
