平安证券研报指出，2024年楼市量价延续调整，2025年全国投资及销售仍将承压。天风证券表示，展望1月，季节性因素叠加春节假期，预计房企销售大概率环比回落，但考虑市场热度余温仍存，同比仍有持平可能，故对基本面短期无需过度悲观，可以核心城市二手量价边际变化作为前瞻指标。交易层面，良好基本面支撑下短期安全边际及配置价值提升，建议关注节后重要会议及“小阳春”等布局窗口。Domestic housing stocks fell collectively. As of press release, Sunac China (01918) fell 8.15% to HK$1.69; Rongxin China (03301) fell 7.94% to HK$0.29; and Shimao Group (00813) fell 6.25% to HK$0.9.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that domestic housing stocks fell collectively. As of press release, Sunac China (01918) fell 8.15% to HK$1.69; Rongxin China (03301) fell 7.94% to HK$0.29; Shimao Group (00813) fell 6.25% to HK$0.9; and R&F Real Estate (02777) fell 4.69% to HK$1.22.
According to the news, previous data from the China Index Research Institute showed that from January to December 2024, the total sales of TOP100 housing enterprises was 4354.73 billion yuan, down 30.6% year on year, and the decline was 2.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month. In December alone, the sales volume of TOP100 real estate companies fell 3.41% year on year, and the decline narrowed somewhat, up 28.86% month on month. Furthermore, according to Kray data, in December 2024, TOP100 real estate companies achieved a sales transaction amount of 451.39 billion yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the previous month, and the same level as the previous year. Looking at cumulative results, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales transaction amount of 3884.02 billion yuan in January-December, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1%, and the decline was nearly 2.6 percentage points narrower than in November.
Ping An Securities Research Report points out that the volume and price adjustments in the property market will continue to be adjusted in 2024, and national investment and sales will still be under pressure in 2025. Tianfeng Securities said that looking ahead to January, when seasonal factors are compounded by the Spring Festival holiday, the probability of housing companies' sales will decline month-on-month, but considering that there is still room in market heat, there is still a possibility that it will remain flat year over year. Therefore, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about fundamentals in the short term; marginal changes in second-hand volume and prices in core cities can be used as forward-looking indicators. At the transaction level, with good fundamentals, short-term safety margins and increased allocation value, it is recommended to focus on important post-holiday meetings and layout windows such as “Xiaoyangchun”.
