中银国际发布研报称，展望2025年，中国半导体的增长将基于2024年的水平实现均值回归。但得益于人工智能和国内半导体供应链的崛起，该行业仍有望在2025年取得优异的市场表现。对于晶圆代工厂来说，受限于经济的不确定性和成熟制程的产能过剩，企业产品单价和利润率的恢复可能慢于营收增长。该行认为，2025年中国晶圆代工厂的核心驱动力在于潜在的政府刺激计划以及更多中国半导体产业的政策支持细节。Chip stocks fell in early trading. As of the time of reporting, HUA HONG SEMI (01347) is down 4.48%, priced at 19.82 HKD; Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) is down 4.33%, priced at 29.8 HKD; SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385) is down 3.91%, priced at 13.78 HKD; ASMPT (00522) is down 1.69%, priced at 75.65 HKD.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, chip stocks have retreated in the morning. As of the time of writing, HUA HONG SEMI (01347) dropped 4.48%, reported at 19.82 HKD; Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) fell 4.33%, reported at 29.8 HKD; SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385) decreased by 3.91%, reported at 13.78 HKD; ASMPT (00522) declined by 1.69%, reported at 75.65 HKD.
On the news front, on January 3, the Large Fund Phase Three consecutively invested in the National Investment and the HUA XIN DING XIN two Funds, with a total scale of 160 billion RMB, marking its first investment since the fund was established last May. China Aviation Securities indicated that the Large Fund Phase Three will focus on the following three aspects: heavy capital expenditure in wafer manufacturing and advanced wafer factory expansion; critical bottleneck segments, emphasizing domestically produced semiconductor equipment, materials, and components, particularly concerning the Lithography, photoresists, and other subsectors; areas related to AI, where AI computing power will receive greater support from the National Large Fund Phase Three, with advanced packaging and high-end storage (such as HBM) worthy of attention.
Bank of China International released a Research Report stating that looking ahead to 2025, the growth of China’s Semiconductors will achieve mean reversion based on the level of 2024. However, thanks to the rise of AI and the domestic semiconductor supply chain, the industry is still expected to perform excellently in the market in 2025. For wafer foundries, constrained by economic uncertainty and overcapacity in mature processes, the recovery of product prices and profit margins may lag behind revenue growth. The bank believes that the core driving force for China's wafer foundries in 2025 lies in potential government stimulus plans and more detailed policy support for the Chinese semiconductor industry.
