智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，市场此前担忧消费品以旧换新(以下简称“国补”)2024年底结束后到2025年3月份两会召开前，政策刺激或存在空窗期，忧虑消费信心不足。The number of home appliances eligible for the trade-in subsidy has increased to 12 categories.
On January 8, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a regular press briefing of the State Council that the categories of home appliances eligible for the trade-in subsidy have increased from 8 to 12 compared to last year, with a maximum subsidy of 20% of the selling price per item.
Continue to support the trade-in of old for new for eight categories of household appliances including Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Televisions, Air Conditioners, Computers, Water Heaters, Household Stoves, and Cooker Hoods, and include four categories of household appliances such as Microwaves, Water Purifiers, Dishwashers, and Rice Cookers in the subsidy scope.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, China Merchants released a Research Report stating that the market was previously worried that the consumer goods trade-in program (hereinafter referred to as 'National Subsidy') might experience a policy vacuum between the end of 2024 and before the Two Sessions in March 2025, raising concerns about insufficient consumer confidence.
As of now, several provinces across the country have announced stimulus policies that will seamlessly transition from January 1, 2025, continuing through the end of 2025. The policy's strength and sincerity have exceeded expectations, indicating that investors should seize the investment opportunities from this round of consumer stimulus that surpasses forecasts.
CICC released a Research Report, stating that by reviewing the four rounds of Consumer subsidies policies in mainland China historically, the financial scale of each round of policies was estimated, and a framework for calculating the fiscal multiplier was designed, estimating the current multiplier of each round of subsidy policies and the cumulative multiplier within two years after the policy was launched. Calculations show that the fiscal subsidy current multiplier is relatively high and has a strong driving force on related consumption. The estimate indicates that the old-for-new subsidy in the fourth quarter of last year may exceed 110 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier around 2.8. This year, the old-for-new policy is likely to be "intensified and expanded," potentially making it the year with the highest intensity of consumer subsidies since 2010, which may significantly boost the total retail sales.
Hong Kong stocks related to the trade-in of old for new household appliances:
HISENSE HA (00921), HAIER SMARTHOME (06690), TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), Midea Group Co., Ltd (00300), XIAOMI-W (01810), etc.
