该行更新目标价至4.33港元，相当于2025年和2026年15倍和13倍PE，目标价较现价有38%上升空间，维持买入评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to Guoyuan International Development Research Report, Xinyi Solar (00968) issued a negative profit forecast. Net profit to the mother is expected to decrease by 70-80% year-on-year in 2024. Based on the company's 2023 net profit of HK$4.187 billion, the company's net profit to the mother in 2024 is expected to be HK$0.837-1.256 billion (median value of HK$1.047 billion). The profit for the first half of 2024 was HK$1.963 billion. It is estimated that the loss for the second half of 2024 was HK$0.707-1.126 billion (median loss of HK$0.916 billion).
The bank said that the sharp drop in the company's profit was mainly due to: 1) the price of 2H24 glass fell sharply year on year due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass, and the company's revenue and gross profit declined accordingly; 2) the company made impairment provisions for photovoltaic glass production lines suspended or undergoing maintenance; 3) due to falling photovoltaic glass prices, the company made inventory write-off provisions. The sharp decline in the company's profit falls short of market expectations, but overall, based on the company's size and cost advantage, the expected loss margin will be significantly smaller than that of second- and third-tier companies.
The bank continued that inventories began to decline slightly from November-December due to the strong reduction in cold repairs in the early stages of the industry. However, due to the 2025Q1 Spring Festival factor and poor demand, the overall operating rate of the industrial chain is expected to drop and the pace of delivery will slow down, and the rise in photovoltaic glass prices in 2025Q1 is still under pressure. However, based on the industry's current loss situation, glass manufacturers are in the price promotion stage, and short-term prices may be mainly stable. The overall judgment is that in 2025, with the clearance of supply-side production capacity and the recovery of Q2 demand after the Q1 off-season, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to improve. After the industry enters the inventory removal stage, the price of photovoltaic glass will return rationally, and the price and profit inflection point will gradually gradually progress.
The bank updated its target price to HK$4.33, which is equivalent to 15 times and 13 times PE in 2025 and 2026. There is room for a 38% increase in the target price compared to the current price, maintaining the purchase rating.
