According to the Zhito Finance APP, Soochow has released a research report stating that the last round of electrification innovation brought Tesla (TSLA.US) a growth cycle of 100,000 to 2 million vehicles. Looking forward to 2025, a new round of intelligence innovation cycle will bring Tesla to a scale of over 4 million vehicles. From 2025 to 2027, Tesla will usher in a new cycle in products (new version of Model Y, Y platform small cars, and Cybercab, etc.) + production capacity (it has reached a stage where new capacity needs to be expanded, and Tesla expects and possibly expands production in both North America and domestically), driving high-quality companies in the Tesla industry chain with global expansion capabilities to grow together.

The turning point for the intelligent industry is approaching.

In 2025, the intelligence (FSD enters China) may equal the electrification (Model 3 localization) of 2020. According to estimates from Soochow, the penetration rate of L3 automation in domestic new energy vehicles is expected to break 10% in 2024, exceed 20% in 2025, and likely surpass 70% in 2027, with an upward slope that may far exceed market expectations, especially as 2026 sees car manufacturers deeply entering the Robotaxi business, which is expected to accelerate consumer willingness to pay for intelligence.

In 2025, each of Tesla's business lines will reach a milestone node in development, with subsequent catalysts in the industry chain intensifying.

On the vehicle side, the new version of Model Y will be globally launched in Q1 2025 + the Y platform small car will be released in H1 2025 (expected to be successively introduced into mass production in North America, Europe, and China) + Cybertruck production capacity will continue to ramp up in 2025 + there are expectations and possibilities for expansion in Tesla's factories in 2025.

In terms of intelligent driving, FSD V13 will be pushed in North America in Q4 2024 + FSD will enter China in H1 2025 + Cybercab will begin road testing in North America in H1 2025 (Tesla may become a model and benchmark enterprise growing together with North America's intelligent driving policies and regulations) + HW5.0 version will be launched in H2 2025.

In the field of Siasun Robot&Automation, technology is expected to be frozen by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, entering the mass production cycle (for factory use) in 2025, and further large-scale mass production is expected in 2026. Humanoid robots will resonate with intelligence to create a new wave of AI Industrial.

Investment suggestion: Bullish on the opportunities in the Industry Chain brought by Tesla's new Global product cycle.

Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SH): Tesla's core Global strategic platform supplier, fully engaged in Autos + robots; Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim (603179.SH): Tesla's core Global interior parts supplier, strong alpha symbol for the T chain in 2025; Ningbo Xusheng Group (603305.SH): Core Global Lightweight supplier + robot product extension; Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior (603730.SH): Global leader in sun visors, accelerating expansion of new products like ceilings.

IKD Co., Ltd. (600933.SH): Tesla's core North American Lightweight supplier + expected robot business; Hengshuai Co., Ltd. (300969.SZ): Comprehensive support for cleaning + micro motors, accelerating fixed-point active cleaning; Huayu Automotive Systems (600741.SH): Undervalued variety in Tesla's Industry Chain; SAIC Group (600104.SH): Potential cooperation possibility with Tesla at the complete vehicle level; Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ): Tesla's Thermal Management + robot actuator business.

Risk warning: Passenger Vehicle price war exceeds expectations; Global New energy penetration rate is lower than expected; Increased risk of geopolitical uncertainty.