他认为，美联储今年不会如市场预期只减息2次，预期有机会减息3至4次，每次25点。Xue Junsheng, the head and chief economist of the Economic Research Department of HANG SENG BANK (00011), stated at the seminar on the 2025 Global Economic and Hong Kong Export Outlook organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation that the market atmosphere was not ideal last year under the high interest rate environment. This year has entered a rate reduction cycle, with major central banks around the world successively cutting rates and inflation in the USA falling, providing space for central banks to ease policies.
According to the Zhichun Finance APP, Xue Junsheng, the head of the Economic Research Department and Chief Economist of HANG SENG BANK (00011), stated at the 2025 Global Economic and Hong Kong Export Outlook Seminar organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation that last year, the market atmosphere was not ideal under the high-interest environment, and this year entered a rate-cutting cycle, with major Global central banks sequentially cutting interest rates, and USA inflation falling, providing space for central banks to relax policies.
Xue Junsheng pointed out that the Federal Reserve is acting cautiously, with the market estimating that USA interest rates will slowly decline, resulting in weakened economic demand due to high-interest impacts.
He believes that the Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates only twice as the market expects this year, and there is a possibility of cutting rates 3 to 4 times, with each cut being 25 basis points.
He pointed out that USA tariff measures are attracting attention, and Hong Kong's export environment will still be relatively difficult and challenging, but emphasized that mainland exports still have competitiveness. Based on past performances after tariffs were imposed, mainland goods exports did not drop but instead rose in their Global market share, so the outlook for this year's mainland exports is not entirely pessimistic.
From the perspective of Hong Kong, it is expected to benefit from the USA rate cuts and the stabilization of the mainland economy. Interest rates are a positive factor, and Hong Kong's bank interest rates will decline following the USA rate cuts, which is Bullish for businesses and citizens. The tourism industry continues to recover, with the number of visitors to Hong Kong last year exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and the positive factors are yet to be reflected, believing that this year's situation will be similar to last year.
