2024年1-12月，15城二手房累计成交面积为9521万平方米，同比增长7.56%，增幅较1-11月走扩4.94pct。12月单月成交面积为1163万平方米，同比上涨64.49%，连续7个月保持正增长。价格方面，12月百城二手房价格环比下降0.53%，同比下降7.26%，同比降幅年内首次收窄。分城市级别来看，高能级城市表现更优，12月一线城市成交面积同比增长95.78%。政策刺激下，二手房市场热度延续，成交量上升有望带动二手房房价逐步企稳。Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the transaction volume in both new and second-hand housing markets has shown some signs of recovery, while the land auction market continues to shrink, and cities are still experiencing differentiation.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian released a Research Report stating that from January to December 2024, the cumulative transaction area of Commodity housing in 35 cities was 156.91 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 19.28%, narrowing by 3.13 percentage points compared to January-November. The transaction area in December alone was 20.51 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 28.36% and a year-on-year increase of 15.53%, representing the highest monthly transaction area for the same period in nearly three years. In terms of price, influenced by the launch of some improved housing projects, the new housing price in 100 cities rose by 0.37% month-on-month and 2.68% year-on-year in December. Among the leading property enterprises, CHINA OVERSEAS performed relatively well, with the total sales amount for the year remaining basically flat year-on-year, while the average decline for the top 10 property enterprises was 24%. The end-of-year push for property enterprise performance, combined with policy stimulus, led to a tailwind in the new housing market.
Second-hand housing sales: December saw the highest transaction volume in nearly five years, with the price decline rate narrowing for the first time this year.
From January to December 2024, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand housing in 15 cities was 95.21 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, expanding by 4.94 percentage points compared to January-November. The transaction area in December alone was 11.63 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 64.49%, maintaining positive growth for seven consecutive months. In terms of price, the second-hand housing price in 100 cities fell by 0.53% month-on-month and by 7.26% year-on-year in December, with the year-on-year decline rate narrowing for the first time this year. In terms of city levels, higher-tier cities performed better, with transaction area in first-tier cities increasing by 95.78% year-on-year in December. Under policy stimulus, the heat in the second-hand housing market continues, and the rising transaction volume is expected to gradually stabilize second-hand housing prices.
Land market: The decline in transaction scale has narrowed, with a significant reduction in the bid abandonment rate.
From January to December 2024, the cumulative transaction area of residential land in 300 cities nationwide was 382.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 22.63%, narrowing by 2.93 percentage points compared to January-November; the average transaction floor price was 5,551 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decline of 0.69%. In December alone, the transaction area of residential land in 300 cities was 123.12 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 15.62%, with an average transaction floor price of 4,715 yuan per square meter, remaining roughly flat year-on-year. In December, several cities had multiple high premium plots traded, and due to the increasing proportion of transaction volume in third and fourth-tier cities, the premium rate fell to 4.81%. Local governments are actively adjusting the land supply structure, and the land bid abandonment rate has decreased to 3.28%.
Investment Suggestions
Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the transaction volume in the new and second-hand housing market has shown signs of recovery, while the land auction market continues to decrease, leading to ongoing differentiation among cities. Looking ahead to 2025, the overall industry may continue to clear out, and the fundamental recovery may still take time. In the short term, the monetization of urban village resettlement could support market sales. It is recommended to focus on key layouts in first-tier and core second-tier cities, emphasizing improved product offerings, and developers with continued land acquisition capabilities, such as GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), C&D INTL GROUP (01908), and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group (002244.SZ); additionally, enterprises undertaking urban renewal projects in key cities, such as Xiamen C&D Inc. (600153.SH); and pay attention to real estate intermediary platforms with core competitiveness, such as 5i5j Holding Group (000560.SZ).
Risk Warning
The policy effects did not meet expectations; the liquidity risks for real estate companies have increased; and market confidence is below expectations.