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日本消费者情绪恶化,市场对加息时机产生怀疑

Japanese Consumer sentiment worsens, raising doubts about the timing of interest rate hikes.

Global Market Report ·  Jan 8 17:18

A government survey conducted on Wednesday indicated that Consumer sentiment in Japan deteriorated in December, raising doubts about the central bank's view that robust household spending will support the economy, making interest rate hikes justifiable. The survey results were released ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on January 23-24, where some Analysts expect that the Bank of Japan may raise rates.

According to a survey by the Cabinet Office of Japan, the Index measuring consumer confidence fell to 36.2 in December, a decrease of 0.2 points from the previous month. Another data set shows that Japan's output gap (which measures the difference between actual output and potential output) was negative for the 18th consecutive quarter from July to September. A negative output gap indicates that actual output is below the economy's full running capacity, which is seen as a sign of weak demand.

These data underscore the fragility of Japan's economy, as rising living costs and the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the newly elected President Trump in the USA have put pressure on Japanese consumption and exports. Nevertheless, some large companies have expressed determination to continue significant wage increases.

Fast Retailing, the owner of the clothing brand Uniqlo, announced that starting in March, it will raise the wages of its headquarters full-time staff and sales personnel by 11%. Furthermore, the president of Lawson convenience store, Sadanobu Takemasu, stated: "We hope to increase (wages) in a stable and sustainable manner."

The Bank of Japan exited a massive stimulus program last March and raised short-term interest rates to 0.25% in July, as people believe Japan is soon poised to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that he is prepared to continue raising interest rates if Japan continues to move towards sustainably achieving a 2% inflation rate. He also mentioned that the central bank will assess whether this year's wage growth momentum will strengthen to determine when to raise rates. The Bank of Japan currently describes consumer spending as a "trend of moderate growth" and expects the Japanese economy to continue its moderate recovery.

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