We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example the Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MYGN) share price dropped 51% over five years. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 21% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 41% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
Myriad Genetics isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last half decade, Myriad Genetics saw its revenue increase by 2.0% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 9% for the last five years. We want to see an acceleration of revenue growth (or profits) before showing much interest in this one. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Myriad Genetics is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Myriad Genetics will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
Myriad Genetics shareholders are down 21% for the year, but the market itself is up 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Myriad Genetics you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.