这一走势与2022年和2023年的情况相似，当时全球股市大幅下跌。然而，本轮债券收益率上升中，股市仅出现轻微调整，Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
The bond market is in decline, and Wall Street believes there is still room for the stock market to drop.
Recently, there has been a massive sell-off in the Global bond market, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield rising to around 4.7%, hitting a new high since April 2023. Since mid-September, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has increased by more than 100 basis points, showing an almost continuous upward trend.
This trend is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the Global stock market experienced a significant decline. However, during this round of rising bond yields, the stock market only saw minor adjustments, which may indicate that there is further downward potential for the stock market if yields continue to rise.
Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann and others stated in a recent report that the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative again. If bond yields continue to rise in the face of poor economic data, it will impact the stock market.
The report states:
Considering that the stock market has been relatively stable during the bond sell-off, we believe that if negative economic news arises, the risk of a short-term correction in the stock market may increase.
Just yesterday, Morgan Stanley's chief strategist Michael Wilson warned that as the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield rises to over 4.5%, it has put pressure on the valuations of U.S. stocks, with the correlation between the S&P 500 Index and bond yields turning into a "significant negative correlation," suggesting that U.S. stocks may face severe challenges in the next six months.
Goldman Sachs also added that the current increase in U.S. long-term bond rates is the largest, with the yield curve steepening, reflecting market concerns over U.S. fiscal and inflation risks, primarily affecting the real yields that exclude inflation factors.
Currently, the market has repriced interest rate cut expectations, predicting that the Federal Reserve will only implement a 25 basis point rate cut once by July, while seemingly still believing that the U.S. economy can achieve a "Goldilocks" scenario.possibility of a soft landing,This refers to a perfect state where the economy maintains growth, unemployment is low, and inflation threats are minimal.
UBS Group strategist Gerry Fowler stated:
"All of this is reflected in real yields rather than inflation, mainly occurring at the long end rather than the short end, indicating that the market is very Bullish on U.S. productivity improvements and is hardly worried about tariff escalations."
According to a previous report from Reuters, most investors on Wall Street are very optimistic about the stock market in 2025, especially U.S. stocks, while ignoring the potential inflation pressures that could arise from tariffs and new government policies.
