现在和那时的区别在于，在可预见的未来，美联储不太可能重拾2022年激进加息的步伐。Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley stated that due to traders' concerns about inflation and the potential rise in interest rates, the decline in the USA stock and bond markets on Wednesday may worsen, although the drop is unlikely to reach the extreme levels seen in 2022.
The bank's chief USA equity strategist mentioned during an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance on Wednesday that he expects a volatile trend in the first half of 2025, followed by improvements in the second half.
Although the sell-off in the stock and bond markets may resemble the synchronised decline across various asset classes seen in 2022, he stated, "I don't think it's going to be that severe."
The difference between now and then is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to resume the aggressive interest rate hikes of 2022 in the foreseeable future.
Wilson pointed out that another key distinction is the earnings recession led by the 'Magnificent Seven' in Technology stocks in 2022.
"Currently, our forecasts are not the same, so there may continue to be bets on the quality segments of the market."
He stated that the factors driving interest rates higher today include concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability, rather than worries about economic growth, while traders are waiting for further clarity on potential policies such as tariffs under Trump.
Related reading: Apollo's chief economist warns that the surge in USA government bond yields could lead to a re-emergence of the 'Truss moment'.
