相对稳定的薪资趋势可能会令围绕日本央行近期加息的猜测升温，包括本月即将召开的政策会议。自行长植田和男在12月会议后的新闻发布会上发表鸽派评论以来，市场参与者已倾向于预计下一次加息会来得更晚。The basic salary of workers in Japan has reached the largest increase in 32 years, indicating that a positive economic cycle is forming, which keeps the door open for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the near future.
On Thursday, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced that basic wages rose by 2.7% in November compared to the previous year, driving nominal wage growth to 3%. Economists had previously predicted nominal wage growth of 2.7%. A more stable wage trend indicator shows that full-time workers' wages increased by 2.8%, maintaining 2% or above for 15 consecutive months. This indicator avoids sampling issues and excludes bonuses and overtime pay.
However, real cash income decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, marking a decline for four consecutive months. The stagnation in real wages is partly due to inflation exceeding the rate of wage growth, and after the government stopped subsidizing utility costs, energy prices rose significantly in November.
The relatively stable wage trend may intensify speculation around the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes, including the upcoming policy meeting this month. Since Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made dovish comments at the press conference following the December meeting, market participants have tended to expect that the next rate hike will come at a later date.
Thursday's overnight swap market shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates at the January meeting is about 46%. The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting in about two weeks.
