上行风险包括中国房地产市场超预期反弹、来自主要竞争对手的压力低于预期以及成功的并购交易；下行风险包括市场竞争加剧、汇率不利变动和原材料价格变化以及并购交易失败等。Golden Eagle Financial News | Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the stock price of Midea Group Co., Ltd (00300) is expected to outperform Large Cap in the next 45 days.
The bank pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission announced details of the 2025 consumer goods replacement plan, with an expanded scope and increased subsidies for Air Conditioners, and the policy details are better than expected. As a leading enterprise in the home appliance Industry, Midea is expected to benefit from this and may see a positive reaction in stock prices in the short term. The closing price of Midea Group's A-shares on January 7 was 77.58 yuan, with a Market Cap of approximately 594 billion yuan, and the stock price has ranged from 54.11 yuan to 83.67 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with 7.04 billion shares outstanding and an average daily Trading volume of 2.164 billion yuan.
Using the sum of parts method, the bank expects Midea's home appliance Business to be valued at an expected PE ratio of 16 times for 2024, higher than the company's average of 13 times in 2017, reflecting a positive expectation for Business growth, corresponding to a per-share value of 88 yuan; referencing the average level of global peers, the expected valuation for Midea's Siasun Robot&Automation Business is 6 yuan per share. A Target Price of 94 yuan is set for its A shares (with a 10% discount on the Target Price compared to H shares), maintaining a 'Shareholding' rating.
Upside risks include an unexpected rebound in the Real Estate market in China, pressures from major competitors being lower than expected, and successful merger and acquisition Trade; downside risks include intensified market competition, adverse fluctuations in Exchange Rates, changes in raw material prices, and failures in merger and acquisition Trade.
