The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in China Resources Gas Group Limited (HKG:1193), since the last five years saw the share price fall 35%.

With the stock having lost 8.3% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

While the share price declined over five years, China Resources Gas Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 0.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

China Resources Gas Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling China Resources Gas Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for China Resources Gas Group the TSR over the last 5 years was -24%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

China Resources Gas Group shareholders have received returns of 25% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the general market return. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 4%, which was endured over half a decade. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for China Resources Gas Group. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - China Resources Gas Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.