In 2025, the final electricity price in the Guangdong market is determined to be about 0.35 yuan per kilowatt-hour, lower than its previous forecast.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it has lowered the Target Price of CGN POWER (01816) by 13.6%, from HKD 3.69 to HKD 3.19, while maintaining a "Shareholding" rating. The electricity price in the Guangdong market for 2025 is ultimately confirmed to be about RMB 0.35 per kilowatt-hour, lower than its previous forecast.
The bank stated that it will lower the earnings per share forecast for CGN POWER for 2025 and 2026 by 14% and 12% respectively, in order to reflect the impact on earnings. Given the lower-than-expected trading volume, it has also reduced the electricity price forecast for 2024 by 2%. Earlier this year, CGN POWER locked in electricity generation of 32 billion kilowatt-hours at a market price of about RMB 0.35, so Morgan Stanley believes that monthly trading will have limited impact for the rest of this year.