“此次罢工危机解除，班轮公司此前宣涨的附加费也将不再收取，美东线运价将逐步回归至正常水平。”惠誉博华工商企业部高级分析师刘濛洋告诉财联社记者，当前正值春节前夕，属于集运市场的传统淡季，运价有波动走低趋势。①ILA and USMX reached a preliminary agreement to avoid a dock strike on January 15. ②An analyst stated that the shipping rates on the West Coast of the USA will begin to decrease, and if the geopolitical factors in the Middle East ease, the price trend on the European line is likely to decline, which will further affect liner companies' profitability.
On January 9, Financial Associated Press reported (Reporter Hu Haoqiong) that on January 8 local time, the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) announced a preliminary agreement for a new six-year master contract. According to the ILA's official statement, the agreement has averted any work stoppage at the docks on January 15, 2025. An institution representative told Financial Associated Press reporters that, as a result, the shipping rates on the West Coast of the USA will begin a downward adjustment.
According to the latest spot freight rates provided by Extreme Technology, the current quotes from liner companies have not shown any decreases. As of this morning, the freight rate range for ships departing from Shanghai Port to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the USA is $4260/FEU to $8613/FEU, which is the same as the quotes on January 8.
"With the strike crisis resolved, the additional charges previously announced by the liner companies will no longer be collected, and shipping rates on the East Coast will gradually return to normal levels," Liu Mengyang, a senior analyst at Fitch Ratings, told Financial Associated Press reporters. Currently, as it is just before the Spring Festival, this is a traditional off-peak season for the shipping market, and there is a trend of fluctuating and declining rates.
The aforementioned institution representative further stated that the USA's tariff policy is still unclear, and it is expected that there will be a stimulating effect on cargo volumes before the implementation of tariff policies, but it will only be a short-term effect.
"In recent years, a large number of new Ships have been launched into operation. If there are no external shocks like the Red Sea crisis, the shipping market will actually show a pattern of oversupply," Liu Mengyang said.
According to the latest data from Alphaliner, as of January 9, 2025, the total number of operational container Ships globally reached 7,194 (of which 6,400 are pure container ships), with a total capacity of 31.48 million TEU, equivalent to about 0.373 billion deadweight tons. The total capacity has increased by 10.38% compared to the data on January 2, 2024. (As of January 2, 2024, the total number of operational container Ships worldwide reached 6,781, with a total capacity of 2,852 TEU.)
In addition, the situation of the shipping market on the European line in 2025 is not optimistic either. Liu Mengyang believes that the Red Sea incident has lasted for over a year, and the market is slowly digesting the effects it has brought. Currently, the situation in the Middle East is not completely clear, and if the regional crisis significantly eases, the price trend is likely to decline, which will further affect liner companies' profitability.
Currently, COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919.SH) has not yet announced its Q4 performance. Looking at the first three quarters, in the context of the Red Sea crisis, the container shipping freight rates surged, and COSCO Shipping Holdings' net income attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 38.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.73%.
