BOC International released a report saying that yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the “Notice on Strengthening Expansion and Implementation of Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policies in 2025”, expanding the 8 categories of household appliances in the consumer goods market to 12 categories in 2024.
For the first quarter of this year, according to the press conference, considering consumer demand during the Spring Festival on New Year's Day, 81 billion yuan of consumer goods trade-in subsidy funds have been issued. Compared with the 50 billion yuan/ 20% subsidy ratio for home appliances last year, it is expected that the first quarter may drive sales of digital household appliances and other categories to exceed 150 billion yuan, compared with the total sales volume of social zero communication equipment and household appliances of 383.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024. The bank still assumes that online sales channels account for 60% +, and that Tmall/JD's ratio is 35-40%. Digital subsidies for home appliances in the first quarter led to sales of about 31.5 billion yuan and 36 billion yuan respectively, or further boosted the growth in the scale of platform transactions.
The bank expects the revenue growth rate of mainland e-commerce platforms to be between 8% and 14% this year. Alibaba's Taotian revenue is expected to accelerate growth driven by GMV's resumed growth and increased monetization rate. JD's monetization rate remains stable. It is concerned that the trade-in policy continues to drive the electrified category.
