The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that due to the consistency and safety requirements of car company customers for power battery products, the renewal cycle for traditional liquid battery equipment is usually about 5 years. 2020-2021 is the peak period for the last round of domestic production expansion. It is expected that 2026-2027 may usher in a small peak in domestic lithium battery equipment renewal and replacement. New technology brings new equipment requirements, such as composite copper foil, 4680 large cylinders, solid state batteries, etc. The short-term boom in the photovoltaic equipment sector bottomed out in 2024, mainly due to industry pressure brought about by overcapacity; with policy support, the industry's supply and demand pattern is expected to reverse to the bottom in 2025, driving capital expenditure for new technologies.

Guolian Securities's main views are as follows:

Lithium battery equipment: domestic production restart and expansion, equipment welcomes new opportunities

The bottom reversal of domestic production expansion: the 2023-2024H1 domestic lithium battery main chain is overcapacity, and battery manufacturers are less willing to expand production in the short term; however, in the 2024Q3 Ningde era, leading companies led by BYD restarted and expanded production. 2024Q3 battery companies invested in 25 new projects at home and abroad, with a total investment amount exceeding 99.1 billion yuan, and the planned power battery production capacity exceeded 281 GWh.

5-year equipment renewal cycle: Due to the consistency and safety requirements of car company customers for power battery products, the renewal cycle for traditional liquid battery equipment is usually about 5 years. 2020-2021 is the peak period for the last round of domestic production expansion. It is expected that 2026-2027 may usher in a small peak in domestic lithium battery equipment renewal and replacement. New technology brings new equipment requirements: new technologies such as composite copper foil, 4680 large cylinders, solid state batteries, etc.

Photovoltaic equipment: policies accelerate production capacity clearance, supply and demand are expected to reverse at the bottom

The short-term boom in the photovoltaic equipment sector bottomed out in 2024, mainly due to industry pressure brought about by overcapacity; with policy support, the industry's supply and demand pattern is expected to reverse to the bottom in 2025, driving capital expenditure for new technologies.

Looking at all aspects, the new technology in the silicon wafer process is low oxygen monocrystalline furnace+tungsten wire. The single crystal furnace adds a superconducting magnetic field or an oversized pump to solve the concentric circle & black core problem of N-type silicon wafers. Diamond wire is based on further thinning of tungsten wire to increase the release rate of silicon rods. The new technologies for the battery are HJT and BC. HJT has a double symmetrical structure, and the front of the BC is not blocked by a grid to improve light conversion efficiency. The new component technology is 0BB, stacked grid silver reduction efficiency technology. 0BB is an upgrade of SMBB technology, eliminating the main grid and leaving only the secondary grid; stacking the grid can be understood as a more extreme 0BB, which completely replaces the “main grid+secondary grid” with a “seed layer+conductive wire”, further reducing silver paste consumption.

Investment advice: optimistic about the repair of leading orders for lithium battery equipment, and pay attention to the progress of new photovoltaic technology

(1) Lithium battery equipment: There is a clear trend of leading domestic lithium battery production expansion. Since leading battery manufacturers are tied to leading equipment vendors, equipment leaders are expected to benefit first. It is recommended to focus on leading pilot intelligence (300450.SZ), which has overall line supply capabilities, and Hangke Technology (688006.SH), a leading back-end equipment leader with a high share of overseas customers. In addition, it is recommended to focus on the one-step pioneer Hongtian Co., Ltd. (603800.SH), the two-step line finishing equipment manufacturer Dongwei Technology (688700.SH), and the leading ultrasonic roller welding equipment manufacturer Jiaocheng Ultrasound (688392.SH); the welding equipment company Lianying Laser (), which benefited from the 4680 breakthrough; and Haimuxing () and Li Yuanheng (), which have the ability to supply solid state batteries as a whole line. 688518.SH 688559.SH 688499.SH

(2) Photovoltaic equipment: We recommend Aotewei (688516.SH), a leading equipment company with advanced technology &; 0BB, and Gaosec (688556.SH), a leading chip foundry whose profits rebound with the price of silicon wafers. It is recommended to focus on ① battery-side new technology BC, HJT: Laplace (688726.SH), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ); ② component side: Shichuang Energy (688429.SH), a leader in stacking grid technology; ③ silicon wafer end: monocrystalline furnace leader Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ).

Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; risk of technology iteration; risk of policy changes.