Jinwu Financial News | According to Huaxi Securities Research Report, Anta Sports (02020) announced 2024Q4 and 24 annual operating data: 24Q4 main brands/FILA/other brands year-on-year positive growth in high units/ positive growth of 50-55%; main brands/FILA/other brands with a year-on-year positive increase in the number of units/positive growth in medium units/ 40-45% positive growth.
Bank analysis: (1) The bank previously anticipated a 10% increase in main brand revenue in 2024, mainly benefiting from maintaining rapid online growth and continuous opening of champion stores and Super Anta stores, but due to Q3 being affected by the weak overall consumption environment, the main brand had a high number of units close to positive double-digit growth in 2024; (2) The bank previously expected FILA revenue growth to grow by a high number of units. Since FILAQ3 was affected by weak consumption, FILA had a positive unit increase in the number of medium units close to high in 2024. Positive growth. (3) Discente and KOLON benefited from increased outdoor prosperity and rapid store opening, and the number of stores increased rapidly. The bank previously expected other brands to grow 30% in 2024, and the actual increase exceeded expectations by 40-45%. (4) Due to investment in Olympic sponsorship, profit margins may be under pressure in 2024, but double-digit net interest rate expectations are maintained.
Based on Anta and FILA brands slightly lower than expectations but other brands exceeding expectations, the bank maintained the 24/25/26 revenue forecast of 69.4/77/85.9 billion yuan; maintained a net profit forecast of 13.863/13.874/15.907 billion yuan. Excluding one-time income from AMER's listing, the net profit forecast for 24/25/26 was 12.3/13.9/15.9 billion yuan, maintaining the 24/25/26 EPS forecast of 4.89/4.90/5.62 yuan. The closing price of HK$75.25 on January 8, 2025 was 14/14/12 times PE for 24/25/26 (HK$1 = RMB 0.93), maintaining a “buy” rating.
