Jinwu Finance | Changjiang Securities released a Research Report indicating that Li Auto (02015) sold 58,513 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a month-on-month increase of 20.1%. The cumulative sales from January to December reached 0.501 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. In Q4 2024, Li Auto delivered 0.159 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8%, reaching the lower limit of Li Auto's previous quarterly sales guidance (160,000 to 170,000 vehicles). In terms of weekly data, Li Auto has maintained the first place in sales among new force brands in the Chinese market for 36 consecutive weeks.
The firm stated that Li Auto has currently formed a product layout of "4 extended-range electric vehicle models + 1 high-voltage pure electric model," covering a market of over 0.2 million. Looking forward to 2025, a strong new car cycle will open up sales space. At the same time, Li Auto's channel structure continues to optimize, with numbers steadily increasing. As of the end of December 2024, Li Auto had 502 retail centers nationwide, covering 150 cities, an increase of 27 from the end of last month; there were 478 after-sales service centers and authorized collision repair centers, covering 225 cities, also an increase of 27 compared to the end of last month.
The firm continued to indicate that the upcoming new models will further improve Li Auto's product matrix and enhance the overall sales space. The combination of high unit price and scale effect is expected to maintain a good level of profitability. It is estimated that the net income attributable to the parent company (GAAP) for 2024-2026 will be 8.1, 14.68, and 20.08 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 22.8X, 12.6X, and 9.2X. The net income attributable to the parent company (Non-GAAP) will be 11.1, 17.88, and 23.28 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.6X, 10.3X, and 7.9X, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
