大型化进入瓶颈期，陆风风机价格自2023年初不断走低，2024年9月价格拐点初现，伴随招标高景气，2025年预计陆风整机盈利触底回升。海外政策加码提升海风装机需求，国内整机商在电价、原材料价格和人力成本等方面价格优势明显。主轴方面，铸造主轴在深远海渐成趋势，2025年大兆瓦型号供需偏紧，预计2025-2026年锻造主轴市场规模为68.74/70.52亿元，而铸造主轴市场规模为20.77/22.22亿元。铸件方面，差异体现在工艺水平和规模优势，预计2025-2026年风电铸件市场将从产能过剩向供不应求过渡。Since 2024Q3, seabreeze constraints have been lifted one after another. Domestic ocean breezes have ushered in multiple catalysis, and industry demand can be expected to pick up; moreover, under the 14th Five-Year Plan target, all provinces and cities have firm seabreeze development goals, and are optimistic about the high increase in seabreeze tenders and installed capacity in 2025. It is expected that the installed capacity of sea breeze may reach 12-15 GW in 2025.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that the installed volume of wind power in the first three quarters of 2024 fell slightly short of expectations, and industrial chain operations were under pressure under pressure from industry contraction. According to the 2024 three-quarter report, leading companies with core competitiveness in towers, submarine cables, spindles/steel structures, floating sea breezes, converters, etc. had strong profitability and improved overall machine profits. Since 2024Q3, seabreeze constraints have been lifted one after another, and domestic ocean breezes have ushered in multiple catalysis, and industry demand can be expected to pick up; moreover, under the 14th Five-Year Plan target, all provinces and cities have firm seabreeze development goals. They are optimistic about the high increase in seabreeze tenders and installed capacity in 2025. It is expected that the installed capacity of sea breeze may reach 12-15 GW in 2025.
Land wind prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and deep-sea large-scale expansion is gradually progressing, focusing on structural price increases for complete machinery and casting and forging parts
Large-scale expansion has entered a bottleneck period. The price of land wind fans has continued to drop since the beginning of 2023, and the price inflection point began to appear in September 2024. Along with the boom in tenders, the profit of landwind complete machines is expected to bottom up in 2025. Overseas policies have increased demand for sea breeze installations, and domestic machine manufacturers have obvious price advantages in terms of electricity prices, raw material prices, and labor costs. In terms of spindles, foundry spindles are gradually becoming a trend. The supply and demand for large megawatt models is tight in 2025. The market size of forged spindles is expected to be 6.874/7.052 billion yuan in 2025-2026, while the market size of foundry spindles is 2.077/2.222 billion yuan. In terms of castings, differences are reflected in process level and scale advantages. The wind power casting market is expected to transition from overcapacity to short supply in 2025-2026.
Two Seas: Overseas wind power is on the rise, and deep-sea floating accelerates expansion
Multinational policies have enhanced the maritime landscape, the European and American regions have provided an important driving force for growth, and emerging markets are beginning to take shape. The “European Wind Power Action Plan” opens up room for growth. Currently, the cumulative capacity is 16.3 GW, and the target installed capacity is 60 GW in 2030; prices for offshore wind power projects in the UK have increased significantly, and tenders are expected to accelerate in 2025. The long coastline and tropical monsoon climate give Southeast Asia deep potential for offshore wind power development. It is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power in Asia, Africa and Latin America will be about 23.9 GW in 2025. In October 2023, the National Energy Administration announced the organization to launch a deep-sea offshore wind power parity demonstration, and the domestic deep-sea market was launched. Most of them are GW-scale large-scale projects, and floating sea breezes help development by reducing costs.
Investment advice: The main investment line focuses on carrying the “two seas” Dongfeng &; output value resists deflation
Complete machines and components focus on manufacturers with large megawatts of production capacity, active promotion of seabreeze deployment, and a high proportion of overseas customers. The whole machine section focuses on Mingyang Intelligence (601615.SH), Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ), Sany Heavy Energy (688349.SH), Yunda (300772.SZ); the casting sector focuses on Riyue shares (603218.SH), extensive special materials (), power transmission (300904.SZ); the spindle section focuses on Jinlei (300443.SZ), Tongyu Heavy Industries (300185.SZ); the pile foundation and tower sector focuses on Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) Lifeng 688186.SH Electricity (301155.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ).
Submarine Cable selects manufacturers with port and high voltage grade advantages, focusing on Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH), and Qifan Cable (); the converter section focuses on Hemang Electric (Dubai); the transformer focuses on Mingyang Electric (301291.SZ); the roller chain focuses on Wuzhou Xinchun (Sichuan), Lixing Co., Ltd. (300421.SZ); the blade link focuses on Sinoma Technology (002080.SZ), 605222.SH 603063.SH 603667.SH Times New Material (600458.SH).
Risk Alerts
There are risks such as wind power policies and installed demand falling short of expectations, the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices, tight supply of electronic components, and the development of large megawatt technology trends falling short of expectations.
