Currently, DRAM and NAND prices have stabilized after a decline, it is advisable to pay attention to module-related companies.
Zhijun Finance APP learned that Caixin Securities released a Research Report stating that it maintains a "leading the market" rating for the electronics Industry. Spot prices follow the market, reflecting the supply and demand relationship of the products. It is expected that the significant rebound in the previous round of memory chip prices benefited partly from controlled production and price stabilization on the supply side. Whether prices can rise further in the future will depend on whether demand can continue to improve. Currently, DRAM and NAND prices have stabilized after a decline, and attention is recommended for related companies in modules.
Event: 1) According to DRAMexchange data, on December 30, the average spot prices of DDR3, 4, and 5 were $0.78, $3.77, and $4.69 respectively, with week-on-week changes of +0.0%, +0.0%, +0.0%, and compared to the lowest prices before the rebound, they were -18.8%, +38.6%, +20.9% respectively. 2) According to CFM data, on December 31, the industry market prices for 256GB and 512GB SSDs were $15.2 and $26.2 respectively, with month-on-month changes of -1.3%, -1.9%, and compared to the lowest prices before the rebound, they were +49.0%, +37.9% respectively.
The main points of Caixin Securities are as follows:
DRAM: 1) Bottoming out: DRAM chip spot prices continuously declined until Q3 2023, with DDR3, 4, and 5 recording minimum prices of $0.96, $2.72, $3.88 respectively. 2) Rebound: DRAM chip prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, with DDR3 prices peaking at the end of February 2024, reaching $1.09, a rebound of 13.5%. DDR4 and 5 prices respectively peaked in July and August, recording $3.88 and $5.17, rebounding by 42.6% and 33.2% respectively. 3) Adjustment stabilization: After peaking, DRAM chip spot prices declined and gradually stabilized. The prices of DDR3, 4, and 5 on December 30 fell by 28.4%, 2.8%, 9.3% respectively from their peak; compared to the beginning of the year, they were -25.0%, +9.3%, +10.4% respectively. DRAM chip prices are stabilizing, while the price of the mature product DDR3 is relatively weaker.
NAND: 1) Bottoming out: NAND chip spot prices continuously declined until the end of July 2023, with 256GB and 512GB SSDs recording minimum prices of $10.2 and $19.0 respectively. 2) Rebound: NAND prices peaked in April 2024 at maximum prices of $19.0 and $33.0, rebounding by 86.3% and 73.7% respectively. 3) Correction stabilization: After peaking, NAND chip spot prices declined and gradually stabilized. On December 31, the prices of 256GB and 512GB SSDs fell by 20.0% and 20.6% respectively from previous highs; compared to the beginning of the year, they were -15.6% and -18.1% respectively. NAND chip prices fluctuate more and are also stabilizing towards the end of the year; apart from a month-on-month decline on December 31, it has remained stable for 7 consecutive weeks.
Investment suggestion: Maintain a "leading the market" rating for the electronics Industry.
Recommended companies related to modules, Jiangbolong (301308.SZ).
Risk warnings: risks of demand falling short of expectations, risks of oversupply, risks of price recovery not meeting expectations.
