The trade-in policy was implemented in 2025, categories were expanded, capital scale was increased, and the trade-in scale may increase significantly in the coming year.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that with the implementation of the trade-in policy in 2025, categories were expanded and the scale of capital increased, and the scale of trade-in may increase dramatically in the coming year. Looking back at the remarkable results of trade-in in 2024, the volume and price of the industry improved, leading players benefited even more, and their share rebounded month-on-month. Among them, Baidian's performance is growing steadily, and it has the advantage of stable ROE and high dividends. It is expected to benefit from the trade-in policy. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on two-wheelers and opportunities for leading black electric companies.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
In 2025, the trade-in policy was implemented, categories were expanded and capital was increased
On January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on increasing the expansion and implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policies in 2025. We will continue to support the trade-in of 8 types of household appliances, such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, water heaters, household stoves, and range hoods. The specific subsidy level is the same as 2024. The addition is that each consumer can subsidize up to 3 items of air conditioning products, and 4 types of household appliances such as microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers are included in the scope of the subsidy.
The scale of trade-ins may increase significantly in 2025
On January 8, at the State Council policy routine briefing, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the total amount of funds used to support the two new 25-year ultra-long-term treasury bonds had increased significantly compared to last year; Fu Jinling, director of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that recently, the central government has pre-issued 81 billion yuan in consumer goods trade-in funds to support the continuous implementation of policies (as of January 5, 19 provincial and municipal announcements have been seamlessly linked). Subsequent fund allocations will be skewed towards regions with better work results in accordance with the “incentive compatibility” principle.
The results of trade-in in 2024 are remarkable, and the volume and price of the industry have improved
According to Ministry of Commerce data quoted by the Securities Times, in 2024, more than 36 million consumers purchased more than 56 million units of eight categories of household appliances, driving sales of 240 billion yuan. According to estimates, it is estimated that more than 45 billion yuan of central subsidy funds will be consumed. According to data from Aowei Cloud Network, the 7 major categories of W35 to 52 (8.26 to 12.29) have an online volume price of +19%, +5%, and +25%, and an offline volume price ratio of +49%, +10%, and +67%. The volume and price have all improved markedly. By category, look at the retail sales growth rate during the period, air conditioning (online +43%, offline +95%) > smoke stove (online +30%, offline +87%) > color TV (online +34%, offline +54%) > ice washing (online +20%, offline +60%).
Leaders benefited even more, and their share rebounded month-on-month
Since the national subsidy, products with first-level energy efficiency standards have accounted for about 90% of the products participating in subsidies, which has led to an improvement in the terminal retail structure. Leading products have a more complete layout, wider channel coverage, and better channel qualifications. They have benefited relatively more from this round of national compensation policies. According to Aowei Cloud Network data, the share of leading online and offline retail sales has increased sequentially.
Investment recommendations:
White Electric's performance is growing steadily, with stable ROE and high dividend advantages. It is expected to benefit from the trade-in policy. We recommend Midea Group (00300,000333.SZ), Gree Electric (000651.SZ), Haier Smart Home (06690,600690.SH), Hisense Home Appliances (00921,000921.SZ); recommend two-wheeler leaders Emma Technology (603529.SH), No. 9 - WD (689009.SH), Yadi Holdings (01585), Black Electric TCL Electronics (01070) , Hisense Vision (600060.SH), Jimi Technology (688696.SH).
Risk warning: Policy falls short of expectations; terminal demand falls short of expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply.
