数据还显示，购车贷款和学费贷款等非循环信贷在11月小幅上涨，而未偿还的信用卡和其他循环债务余额骤降138亿美元，In November, USA consumer credit decreased significantly by 7.5 billion dollars, with unpaid credit card and other revolving debt balances plummeting by 13.8 billion dollars, marking the largest monthly drop since the economic shutdown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis suggests that whenever there is such a sharp decline in revolving credit, the USA economy is often on the brink of recession or already in recession.
Is the American favorite of 'consumer spending in advance' no longer appealing? Credit card debt in the USA unexpectedly plunged, and a deep recession may really be coming...
Yesterday, the latest consumer credit data released by the Federal Reserve showed that in November 2024, the total consumer credit in the USA significantly decreased by 7.5 billion USD, falling to 5.102 trillion USD, a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, a figure that typically appears only in the mid or worse stages of an economic recession.
The data also showed a slight increase in non-revolving credit, such as auto loans and tuition loans in November, while the balances of outstanding credit card and other revolving debts plummeted by 13.8 billion USD, marking the largest monthly drop since the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts pointed out:
"It can be said with certainty that historically, whenever there has been such a significant decline in revolving credit, the USA economy has often been on the brink of recession or has already fallen into recession."
However, the dramatic drop in credit card debt has indeed surprised analysts, as American consumers had previously relied on credit cards to maintain spending levels, purchasing items that are currently 'unaffordable', and expecting to repay at a moderate interest rate sometime in the future. Some believe this may be due to consumers' savings, particularly the 'emergency savings from the pandemic', being exhausted or nearly exhausted, leading to the depletion of credit card limits, while the previous surge in credit card debt was merely a 'final celebration'.
It is worth noting that despite the Federal Reserve having lowered interest rates by 100 basis points in the past three months, credit card rates remain high. According to data from the Federal Reserve, the average credit card account rate in the Bank of America system is still as high as 22.8%, just 0.57% lower than the historical peak set in the third quarter of 2024. Analysts believe that the stable recovery of the economy in the USA is merely a false appearance.
