报告中称，由于2024年4季度开始的冬季较往年暖和，内地天然气需求在2024年11月出现同比下跌，该行亦调低公司工商业及居民用气量。公司加气站业务在2024年开始与母公司资源重组，该行估计公司仍在2024下半年转让经营权，因此在期内仍有约5亿方来自加气站的销售。总结，该行估计公司在2024年全年零售气销售同比增长8.6%。BOCOM INTL has lowered KUNLUN ENERGY's core earnings forecast for 2024-26 by 5.4%/2.9%/3.6%.
Zhitong Finance APP has learned that BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating for KUNLUN ENERGY (00135), while lowering the company's core profit forecast for 2024-2026 by 5.4%/2.9%/3.6% respectively, and at the same time lowering the company's Target Price to HKD 9.08. Regarding the dividend policy, the company's management stated last year that the full-year dividend target for 2024 is consistent with the mid-term payout ratio of 43%, and it aims to further increase it to 45% in 2025, with dividend yields of 4.4%/5.1% for 2024/25, which still holds certain attractiveness.
The report indicated adjustments to KUNLUN ENERGY's profit forecasts and valuation. It believes that domestic natural gas demand has been affected by the warm winter, impacting the year-on-year growth of the company's retail gas sales. Additionally, the utilization rate of LNG receiving stations is also expected to be affected by the weakening import volume in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the management expense forecast also being raised.
The report mentioned that due to the warmer winter starting in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to previous years, domestic natural gas demand experienced a year-on-year decline in November 2024, leading to a downward adjustment in the company's volume of gas used by commercial and residential sectors. The company's gas station Business is set to reorganize resources with its parent company starting in 2024, and it is estimated that the company will still transfer operating rights in the second half of 2024, hence during this period, approximately 0.5 billion cubic meters will come from sales at the gas stations. In summary, it is estimated that the company's retail gas sales will grow by 8.6% year-on-year for the whole of 2024.
Due to a year-on-year decline of about 1% in domestic natural gas import volume starting in November 2024, the company has also lowered its 2024 utilization rate forecast for LNG receiving stations by 1 percentage point to 89%. As for LNG processing plants, the company maintains its expectation for a year-on-year growth of 16% in LNG processing volume for 2024. At the same time, the company examines the distribution of expenses in the past half years and raises the management expense forecast for the second half of 2024.
