Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company's Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker's valuation metrics and growth prospects.
What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla's planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year.
The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla's price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings.
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.
"Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years," Black wrote.
One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get... pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 9, 2025
Why It Matters: The debate follows CEO Elon Musk's announcement that Tesla aims to produce several thousand Optimus robots in 2025, scaling to 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and potentially 500,000 in 2027.
Bank of America analyst John Murphy recently valued Tesla's Optimus segment between $14 billion and $95 billion in his sum-of-parts analysis, representing just 2% of Tesla's total estimated value. Murphy sees greater potential in Tesla's robotaxi and Full Self-Driving capabilities, which he estimates could comprise over 75% of the company's future value.
"If investors want TSLA stock to stop underperforming, they need to stop pressuring analysts to push estimates ever higher," Black emphasized, citing that Tesla's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined by 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.
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オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会（ASIC）の管理を受けております（AFSL No. 224663）。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla's recent market performance. "TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high," Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 36% rise during that period.
ブラックは、自身の保守的な立場を擁護し、テスラの最近の市場パフォーマンスを指摘した。「TSLAは過去3年間、期待が高すぎたためにパフォーマンスが低迷している」とブラックはXに書き、テスラ株はその期間中にナスダック100の36％の上昇に対して12％上昇したことを指摘した。