相较当前临床使用的射频消融和冷冻消融，脉冲场消融具备组织选择性，安全性高，消融速度快，并且消融过程基本不产生热能量，在保证安全性的同时，确保有效性。同时，脉冲场消融对于导管与心肌组织的贴靠要求低，医生学习曲线短。PFA有望对射频及冷冻消融持续替代，同时带动市场扩容。The domestic PFA system is more in line with the preferences of local doctors and is expected to overtake in the curve.
According to Zhituo Finance APP, HAITONG SEC released a Research Report stating that globally, electrophysiology has entered the PFA era. Boston Scientific has risen from being an 'unknown player' to an 'industry star' in electrophysiology due to its PFA products. In Q3 2024, the electrophysiology Sector's revenue reached 0.526 billion USD, marking a 177% year-on-year growth, accelerating the growth rate and rapidly catching up to Johnson & Johnson in market share. The stock price is expected to rise by 55% for the entire year of 2024, with a total market capitalization reaching 131.6 billion USD. Domestically, as local companies such as Jinjiang Electronics, Denuo Electrophysiology, and APT Medical Inc. have received NMPA approval for their PFA products, domestic electrophysiology firms are expected to continue chasing market share from foreign companies like Johnson & Johnson, achieving a leapfrog advantage and bringing significant changes to the market structure and industry space.
PFA is safer and more effective, and it is expected to continue forming a substitute.
Compared to the current clinical applications of radiofrequency ablation and cryoablation, pulsed field ablation features tissue selectivity, high safety, and rapid ablation speed, with little generation of thermal energy during the ablation process, ensuring both safety and efficacy. Additionally, pulsed field ablation has low requirements for contact between the catheter and myocardial tissue, and the learning curve for physicians is short. PFA is expected to continually substitute radiofrequency and cryoablation while driving market expansion.
PFA penetration rates are expected to exceed expectations, with China's PFA market having a space worth hundreds of billions.
According to Boston Scientific's determination, the global atrial fibrillation ablation market reached 5 billion USD in 2023, with pulsed field ablation accounting for less than 5% of atrial fibrillation ablation procedures. However, its market share is expected to reach 60% to 80% by 2028, showing significant potential in the first-line treatment of persistent atrial fibrillation. According to our calculations, the long-term space for PFA procedures in China is estimated at 0.8 million cases, with market space worth hundreds of billions.
Domestic PFA systems are more aligned with the preferences of Chinese doctors, with the potential for leapfrogging.
In Q3 of 2022, the electrophysiology revenue of Boston Scientific was only 15% of that of Johnson & Johnson, but by Q3 of 2024, it had reached 41% of Johnson & Johnson's revenue, rapidly catching up. Leading domestic electrophysiology manufacturers are establishing differentiated advantages over foreign manufacturers in aspects such as non-general anesthesia, pressure sensing, and three-dimensional mapping, which are closer to the clinical habits of domestic doctors, and there is hope of surpassing foreign manufacturers in the electrophysiology field through PFA products.
Recommended for attention: APT Medical Inc. (688617.SH), Micro Electrophysiology-U (688351.SH), Jinjiang Electronics, Deno Electrophysiology.
Risk warning: Risks of intensified medical insurance cost control, slower than expected product launch progress, surgery volume not meeting expectations, product sales below expectations, and valuation fluctuation risks.
